Contenders clash in the national spotlight with major MAC title implications.
Ohio (7-3, 5-1 MAC) travels to Toledo (7-3, 4-2 MAC) with both teams having earned an opportunity to play on national TV in a high-stakes match-up for supremacy in the MAC standings. An Ohio win keeps the Bobcats in first place with only one game remaining. A Toledo win keeps its chances alive with two conference losses so far.
The good news for Toledo is there are multiple paths to the MAC championship. For instance, if they beat Ohio, the Rockets have the tiebreaker over the Bobcats with both at 5-2 in conference. Also, the other two first place teams, Miami and Bowling Green, face off in the season finale. Toledo has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the RedHawks but not the Falcons so the Rockets will be rooting for Miami if the Rockets can win out and Miami and BGSU keep winning until they meet.
An interesting wild card is how BGSU’s and Ohio’s games against Ball State will go after the recent firing of head coach Mike Neu. The Cardinals had vastly improved the second half of the season but what might happen now is unknown.
Although they have two conference losses coming into this one, it is fair to say the Rockets have had a tougher conference schedule so far, facing contenders Bowling Green and NIU while Ohio faced Akron and Kent State (combined 2-18 record).
However, against common MAC opponents (Eastern Michigan, Miami, Buffalo, and Central Michigan), both teams are 3-1 with Toledo losing to Buffalo while Ohio lost to Miami.
With the stage set, let’s take a look at both squads starting with the visitors.
Game notes
- Time and date: Wednesday November 20, 2024 at 7:00 Eastern time
- Location: The historic Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio
- TV network options: The game will be available exclusively on ESPN2. A valid cable subscription is required for viewing.
- Streaming options: The game will be available for streaming on the ESPN App or on applicable cable/satellite services. A valid subscription is required for viewing on either platform. Other streaming carriers include Sling, DirecTV Stream, fuboTV, Hulu Live TV, or YouTube TV.
- Radio options: Mark Baier (play-by-play) and Jack Mewhort (color) will provide the Toledo call for The Rockets Radio Network while Marty Bannister (play-by-play) and Rob Cornelius (color) will provide the Ohio call for WXTQ-FM 105.5.
- Series history: Toledo leads the all-time series with a record of 33-21-1. Ohio has two wins in its last 18 games at Toledo since 1967. with the other win in 2016— a year the Bobcats played in the MAC championship.
- Gambling considerations: Per DraftKings, Toledo is favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 45.5.
About the Ohio Bobcats
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Ohio enters the contest with a few chapters to write in what is already a compelling 2024 story. The Bobcats transitioned from 2023 undergoing major changes that left uncertainty in the air outside of Athens heading into 2024. In the offseason, Ohio rebuilt a significant part of the roster around a returning core, forging nine new offensive starters while acclimating new offensive and defensive coordinators (both promoted from within).
As the season progressed, Ohio found a way to keep winning despite major adversity on the injury front in losing both starting offensive tackles, key defensive backs, and linebackers for significant stretches.
The offensive line has paved the way despite being a shuffled deck on the edges and left guard with players like Davion Weatherspoon and Carson Heidecker stepping up by playing multiple positions to get the best five on the field. Ohio should get a boost though at right tackle with starter Jacob Dennison returning from injury last week.
Despite it all, the Bobcats are peaking at the right time, delivering in all phases while dominating its last three opponents by a combined score of 123-26 (Buffalo, Kent State, Eastern Michigan).
Heading into the recent stretch, Ohio had a winning formula as old as football, running the ball and stopping the run where they are ranked first and second respectively in MAC play.
Where the ‘Cats have taken their game to the next level recently is explosive plays on both sides of the ball. Defensively, Ohio’s last three games include a prolific stat line with 26 tackles-for-loss, 12 sacks, 12 passes defensed, and seven turnovers with a pick six and a pick two (interception return of a two-point conversion attempt).
Defensive end Bradley Weaver leads the charge ranking third in the MAC with six sacks and sixth with nine tackles-for-loss.
Another potential sign of maturation was their most productive passing game of the season last week. Coming into the contest last week averaging 182 yards per game in MAC play, Ohio threw for a season-high 277 yards, a career best for quarterback Parker Navarro, fueled by some clutch catches by wideouts like Chase Hendricks and Rodney Harris II. Overall, the Bobcats had seven plays of 19 or more yards last week including six passes.
Wideout Coleman Owen leads the charge in the passing game, needing just 118 yards to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark this season.
The ground game starts with Anthony Tyus III and QB Navarro who are fourth and sixth in the conference with 726 and 662 yards rushing respectively. Navarro and Tyus III are also second and third in the MAC with nine and seven rushing touchdowns respectively.
Defensively, Ohio is ranked first in scoring defense in MAC play, allowing just over 15 points per contest. Some notables so far are the red zone and explosive plays; Ohio is tops in keeping opponents out of the red zone in MAC play, allowing just 10 drives to reach the red zone in six games. Meanwhile, the remaining conference teams are averaging 21 such red zone drives allowed in MAC play with a few teams tied for second with 16 (Toledo has 25).
While keeping teams out of the red zone, the ‘Cats have clamped down on explosive plays too. Piecing together the data, in six games Ohio has allowed approximately a total of seven passes and five runs over 20 yards, so about one run and pass per game.
The Bobcats will have their hands full with Toledo’s vaunted passing attack but boast a secondary operating at a high-level, contributing to the conference’s third-ranked passing defense with 163 per contest. Cornerbacks Tank Pearson and Roman Parodie have been notable with Pearson’s two interceptions last week and Parodie’s overall rock-solid effort throughout conference play. The duo is tied for fifth in the MAC with eight passes defensed each.
Finally, a steady force on the back end is Dustin Johnson, who leads the squad with 59 tackles.
About the Toledo Rockets
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Another year, another title run for the Rockets. Toledo enters the contest playing for its third-straight MAC title appearance. It hasn’t been perhaps as smooth this year after major losses in the secondary and along the offensive line coming into the season but, as usual, the Rockets just reload and roll.
The team came into last week’s contest showing they could beat any MAC contender with an impressive win over Miami to their credit and a gritty defensive struggle win against NIU, 13-6.
Toledo did nothing to dispel the championship potential last week, crushing Central Michigan 37-10, riding the wave of momentum that five takeaways typically provides. The Chippewas entered the game banged up, especially at quarterback as they trotted out their fourth starter of the year. CMU couldn’t move the ball against the Rockets defense, which allowed a largely-harmless harmless 236 total yards.
To win, Toledo will need to slow down one of the league’s most potent rushing attacks featuring the MAC’s most successful running quarterbacks in Parker Navarro.
Although not the caliber of Ohio’s quarterback rushing attack, Toledo has generally contained other running quarterbacks to this point. The Rockets surrendered 65 yards to quarterback Cole Snyder in the one-point win over EMU but suffered no consistent damage against dual-threat guys for contenders Buffalo and NIU, with the Bulls’ CJ Ogbonna rushing for 26 yards on 14 tries while NIU’s QB Josh Holst mustered 48 yards on 14 carries.
A feather in the cap of the Rockets’ run defense has been limiting explosive plays of 20 or more yards, where they have surrendered only five such plays in six conference games.
Linebacker Daniel Bolden is central to slowing the run with 40 total tackles in just his last four games.
Also key in run and pass support is the anchor on the back end of the defense safety Maxen Hook. This future Sunday player has been a big factor in the team’s success over the last four years which is reflected in a career stat line including 339 tackles, 15 passes defensed, and six interceptions.
Should Ohio go to the air, the Rockets have some younger players who have stepped up this year such as corner Avery Smith. The Rocket defender leads the MAC in passes defensed with 14 including one on the last play of the game to deny Eastern Michigan what would have been a game-winning two-point conversion.
Offensively, the Rockets are eighth in conference play with 25.0 points per game but have also faced three of the top four defenses in the league in NIU, Miami, and Bowling Green.
To this point, the Rockets have been a prolific passing team, leading the conference with 2,492 yards passing and 23 touchdowns. Quarterback Tucker Gleason is second in the MAC in touchdown passes with 23.
Toledo has a dynamic duo at Gleason’s disposal in wideouts Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III who are second and sixth in the MAC respectively with 823 and 653 yards receiving. Newton etched his name in the Toledo record books with a legendary career which ranks first all-time in touchdown catches (31) while also ranking top ten in receptions with 186 and 2,717 receiving yards.
Tight end Anthony Torres has also been notable in the passing game with 19 catches for 241 yards and four scores.
The Rockets offense has relied less on the running game in conference play, turning in a tenth-ranked 114 yards a contest led by Connor Walendzak’s 368 yards. Gleason is a factor on the ground and is a big, physical runner with 268 yards rushing, shining in the red zone with six rushing scores. Finally, opponents shouldn’t sleep on Jacquez Stuart. While less than 300 yards rushing so far this season, Stuart is an explosive back with career totals including 1,849 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns.