An interesting first-time matchup is on the docket in Starkville.
Toledo and Mississippi State meet in their first-ever meeting on Saturday, in what is sure to be a competitive game for all watching. I know that’s a strange thing to say about a MAC-SEC matchup, which are usually pay-day blowouts with scores unseen this side of high school games, but bear with me here.
I am saying there’s a chance.
Game Info
- Time and date: Saturday, Sept. 14th, 2024 at 7:30 pm Eastern
- Where: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi
- Weather: High 70s-low 80s with a chance of late showers
- Gambling considerations: Mississippi State is an 11.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 59.5.
- TV options: The game will be on ESPNU, part of the ESPN family of networks. A valid cable subscription is required for viewing.
- Streaming options: The game will be available for streaming on the ESPN App or on applicable cable/satellite services. A valid subscription is required for viewing on either platform. Other streaming carriers include Sling, DirecTV Stream, fuboTV, Hulu Live TV, or YouTube TV.
- Radio option: Brett Balbinot (play-by-play) and Bruce Gradkowski (color) will provide the Toledo call for the Rockets Radio Network
Getting to know the Bulldogs
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
I’m sure Hustle Belt regulars and newcomers alike are already quite familiar with Toledo, so let’s start with Mississippi State.
One of the Original 10 founding members of the SEC, the Bulldogs had a chaotic 2023, directly caused by the death of head coach (and, in this author’s opinion, the most important man in the history of how the sport is currently played next to Sid Gillman) Mike Leach before their bowl game in December of 2022. Hired to replace Leach was Zach Arnett, who was fired after State got dry-cleaned by a thoroughly mediocre Texas A&M by the eye-watering margin of 51-10. Greg Knox, professional Interim Head Coach, went 1-1 to finish the Bulldogs’ season at a disappointing 5-7.
Leading State into battle against the Rockets is first-year head man Jeff Lebby, who’s making his debut campaign as top headset-wearer after a long career as an assistant, most recently as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for UCF, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. In addition to the funkiness that is the SEC’s league slate this year, Mississippi State’s non-conference slate is unique in that they are all first-time matchups.
State is fielding a team practically unidentifiable from last year. The Bulldogs are returning only three starters on the entire team, all on defense. Meanwhile, they lost all 11 of their offensive starters and eight of their defensive starters from last year. The team is extremely young and 28 players on the team are transfers, with an additional 13 coming from the junior college level. As such, it’s extremely difficult to give a breakdown of players to watch for, given that for many, this is their first go-around at the FBS level.
One player I can say to look out for is starting quarterback Blake Shapen, who was watchlisted for the Unitas Award. He’s gone for 515 yards and five touchdowns in State’s first two games of the season, completing 68.8 percent of his passes. Receiver Kevin Coleman Jr leads State in scrimmage yardage with 200 yards, with Northwestern transfer Jordan Mosely right behind him with 162. In the backfield, the Bulldogs sport Keyvone Lee, a transfer from Penn State, who currently has 88 all-purpose yards, with Creed Whittemore and Utah State transfer Davon Booth picking up the bulk of the rest of the rushing detail.
On defense, safety Isaac Smith leads the team in solo and total tackles. Corner Elijah Cannon has State’s sole interception of the season, which was incidentally also a 51-yard pick-6. Branden Jennings, a transfer linebacker with previous stops at Maryland and UCF, and lineman Kalvin Dinkins lead the Bulldogs in sacks, with 1 each.
Getting to know the Rockets
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Now, let’s look at the Rockets, who are not quite as much of an enigma this season. Despite considerable roster turnover, Jason Candle has not taken this as a sign to slow down Toledo’s winning ways.
In case I didn’t make this clear in my last write-up of this program, it’s actually ridiculous how successful Toledo has been in the last 15 years. In fact, that’s the last time they’ve had a losing season, the fifth-longest such streak in the FBS, with only Alabama, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin and newly minted PAC-12 member Boise State ahead of them. They also hold the eighth longest bowl-eligibility streak in all of FBS, trailing only Boise State’s 26-year streak at the ”Group” level. Candle has led Toledo to more wins than anyone else in the MAC since taking over at head coach.
As for players, Toledo has not missed a beat despite losing some big names, which I covered in my Week 1 preview of this team. Tucker Gleason is settling very well into Dequan Finn’s enormous shoes, leading the MAC in touchdown passes with six while tossing no interceptions; his 48.9 completion percentage could stand to be cleaned up a bit, however. Junior Vandeross and Jerjuan Newton each have over 100 receiving yards already, with the latter climbing his way up Toledo’s all-time receiving records. Willie Shaw leads the team in rushing, with 75 yards.
So how have these teams fared so far in 2024? Mississippi State opened their campaign with a thorough 56-7 pasting of Eastern Kentucky, followed by a disappointing 23-30 loss to Arizona State in the desert. Toledo has won both their opening matches against Duquesne and Massachusetts. Mississippi State has more total yards of offense, but has also allowed more yards of total offense, although, to be fair, Arizona State is slightly tougher competition.
An area of big concern for the Rockets is Tucker Gleason’s accuracy. He absolutely cannot go 8-of-23 against State and hope to win. Toledo needs to exploit the areas of weakness that Arizona State found last week, and with tight quarterback play this game could surprise many. I did pick Toledo to win this game, simply because I think Toledo has the offense to do it. They just have to be at their absolute peak.