The Rockets and Huskies face off in an early conference game that could have MAC Championship Game implications
The Northern Illinois Huskies (4-2, 1-1 MAC) will host the Toledo Rockets (4-2, 1-1 MAC) in their homecoming match this Saturday afternoon.
This is a must-win for both squads. With both schools having lost to Buffalo already, a second conference loss would most likely put them out of contention for the MAC title game in December.
NIU is coming off a pair of second-half comebacks, beating UMass and Bowling Green, while the Rockets will look to bounce back from last Saturday’s 30-15 loss to the Bulls.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illlinois
- Network: Streaming exclusively on ESPN+. A valid subscription is required. Mike Couzens (play-by-play) and Ryan cavanaugh (color) will be on the call.
- Radio: Andy Garcia [debut season] (play-by-play) and Mark Lindo (color) will provide the NIU call for WDKB-FM 94.9, while Mark Beier (play-by-play) and Jack Mewhort (color) will provide the Toledo call for the Rockets Radio Network.
- Gambling considerations: NIU (-2.5), with an over/under of 42.5.
- All-time series: Toledo leads the all-time series, 34-17, and holds a two-game winning streak.
- Last meeting: Toledo 35, NIU 33 on September 30, 2023
Getting to Know the Rockets
Matt Bush-Imagn Images
Since the Rockets’ dominating win over Mississippi State a month ago, Toledo has struggled, dropping two of their last three games, with losses to Western Kentucky and Buffalo bookending a win over Miami.
The Rockets offense is averaging 32.8 points and 382.8 yards per game, with most of that yardage coming through the air. Toledo’s 271.5 passing yards per game ranks 31st in the FBS, while their 111.3 rushing yards per game has them near the bottom of the FBS ranks, at 112th.
Led by quarterback Tucker Gleason, the Rockets aerial attack is netting over 12.7 yards per completion and is 34th in the nation in passing efficiency. Gleason has connected on 61.6% of his throws for 1325 yards and 13 touchdowns with just seven sacks and four interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing yards, with 164 yards and two scores on his 50 carries. However, he did sustain an unspecified injury last weekend and it is unsure whether he will start this game or the Huskies will see John Alan Richter.
Richter did well in relief last weekend, helping the Rockets get somewhat back into the game and he looks to be just as dangerous as Gleason. On the season Richter has completed nearly 76 percent of his passes (22-of-29) for 304 yards and three touchdowns with no picks and being sacked just once.
The Rockets do have five players with over 100 receiving yards, but there is a clear duo that the NIU secondary will be worried about: Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III. Newton leads the team with 517 yards and seven TDs and has the second most receptions (31). Newton’s 517 yards is fourth-best in the MAC (29th in the nation) and his seven scores ranks tied for fifth nationally and best in the conference. Vandeross III has a team-leading 34 grabs with 398 yards and three TDs. In the redzone, the Rockets also will use tight end Anthony Torres. Torres has five touchdown grabs, which ranks third in the MAC, and 14 catches for 135 yards.
On the ground, there have been some injuries for the Rockets. They have four players with 30+ carries on the season. Connor Walendzak has gotten the bulk of the carries with Jacquez Stuart and Willie Shaw III both missing the last few weeks. Walendzak has 52 rushes for 189 yards and a touchdown, barley edging out Gleason for the team’s leading rusher. Stuart, who missed last week’s game, has 109 yards and two scores on 37 attempts, while Shaw III (38 carries, 148 yards, team-leading three TDs) has missed the previous two games. As of writing this on Wednesday, it looks like both Shaw and Stuart are questionable to suit up for the game.
Defensively, the Rockets are giving up 21 points and 344.5 yards per game, with most of the damage coming via the pass. Toledo’s defense is allowing 234 yards through the air, which ranks 92nd nationally. However, their 110.5 yards allowed on the ground is in the top quarter of defenses, coming in at 33rd. That’s bad news for the Huskies, who rely on their rushing attack.
Despite allowing a lot of yardage, the Toledo secondary has a lot of talent roaming around. Four of their top six tacklers are safeties or cornerbacks, including their top two tacklers in Maxen Hook and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.
Hook has a team-high 50 tackles (30 unassisted) with two pass break ups, a tackle-for-loss, an interception, and a forced and recovered fumble, while McNeil-Warren has 46 stops, three PBU, a forced fumble, a pick, 1.5 TFL, and half a sack.
Fellow safety Braden Awls is fifth in tackles (34), and leads the conference with three interceptions. Cornerback Avery Smith is tied for third in the FBS with eight pass break-ups and also has an interception, blocked kick, and 25 tackles.
Linebackers Jackson Barrow and Daniel Bolden rank third and fourth in tackles, with Barrow netting 36 stops to Bolden’s 35. They have also combined for 8.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and a pass break up. Barrow’s 5.5 TFL leads the team while his two sacks are ranked second.
Up front, defensive tackle Darius Alexander has been solid. He has 17 tackles on the season, has two quarterback hurries, and he is ranked second on the team in three categories – pass break ups (4), sacks (2.5), tackles for loss (5).
Getting to Know the Huskies
Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images
This season when you talk about the Northern Illinois Huskies, you have to start with their defense. NIU ranks in the top 25 in thirteen statistical categories and in the top 10 in six of those stats. Eight of those thirteen come on defense, showing just where the Huskies’ strength lies.
The Huskies lead the NCAA in third down defense, allowing conversions just 20.5% of the time. They rank fourth in total defense (253.7 yards per game), eighth in first downs allowed (just 88 all season), ninth in passing yards allowed (157.3 per game), tenth in sacks (3.17 per game and 19 total sacks), 17th in rushing yards allowed (96.3 per game), 20th in scoring defense (17.17 points per game), and are 25th in tackles for loss (6.8 per game, 41 TFL overall). They have given up 300 yards in a game just one time this season while holding two teams to under 200 yards.
NIU is also ultra-disciplined, ranking fifth in the NCAA in penalties, having been flagged just 24 times all year for 241 yards (22nd in NCAA.)
Not a single player has more than 33 tackles (Toledo has five) but every unit has depth and skill.
Up front is Skylar Gill-Howard, Roy Williams, Devonte O’Malley, and Nevaeh Sanders. Williams, O’Malley, and Sanders have caused havoc in the backfield, with a combined 14 tackles-for-loss and 9.5 sacks. Williams and Sanders are tied for the team lead in sacks, with 4.5 each, while they trial Williams for the lead in TFLs (he has five to their 4.5). Gill-Howard has 24 stops (t-3rd on the team), 3.5 TFL, two sacks, and two QBH.
Linebackers Jaden Dolphin and Christian Fuhrman lead the team in total tackles, with 33 and 32, respectively. Furhman has added three TFL, a pick, and a pass break up while Dolphin has two TFL and a pass break-up.
In the secondary, safety Nate Valcarcel, Jacob Finely, and Amariyun Knighten have made plays all season. Valcarcel has 24 tackles, a sack, a TFL, an interception, a quarterback hurry, and four pass break ups. The only player with more PBU is Finley, who has five, in addition to his ten tackles and a lone TFL. Knighten has nine stops but has added an interception and a pair of PBU.
Offensively, the Huskies have struggled to score and move the ball through the air, as they only net 181.3 passing yards (111th) and 26.3 points per game (83rd).
They do, however, average over 400 yards per game because they have the 14th best rushing offense (220.7 yards per game) and they use that ground-and-pound approach to wear defenses down.
NIU’s ability to convert on third down (they are 22nd in the NCAA and first in the MAC, converting on 48.4% of their tries) combined with their rushing attack, has allowed Northern to hold on to the ball for just under 34 minutes per game – which is ranked sixth in the FBS.
Last week, the Huskies were without two of their top running backs – star Antario Brown and backup Jaden Poe – and they still managed 170 yards on the ground. It is unclear if either will suit up for the game this week yet.
Brown was NIU’s leading rusher until last week and has 401 yards and two scores on 87 carries. He is also NIU’s leading receiver, with 204 yards and score on his eight catches. Poe is third on the team with 140 yards but has a team-high three rushing touchdowns on his 22 carries.
Gavin Williams is now the leading back for the Huskies as he passed Brown last weekend with 102 yards on 29 carries against Bowling Green. On the season Williams has 89 carries for 409 yards and a single touchdown.
Quarterback Ethan Hampton missed most of last game with an undisclosed injury and was replaced by freshman Josh Holst. Hampton has been struggling as of late and there has been no word as to if he’ll start against Toledo or if Holst will suit up. Hampton, on the season, is completing just 59.1 percentr of his passes and has 932 yards and eight touchdowns to four interceptions. He has also been sacked six times and fumbled a handful of times. Holst is not a pocket passer at all, with all of his throws have come with him rolling out or scrambling. In relief this season he is 12-of-17 for 106 yards and is very much a threat to run, gaining 75 yards and a score on eleven carries, including the go-ahead 22-yard touchdown run last weekend.
Another missing piece for NIU is their dynamic wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph, who hasn’t played in a few weeks. Instead, it has been Cam Thompson, Grayson Barnes, and Andrew McElroy that have stepped up. The trio are the only three Huskies with 10+ receptions on the season. Thompson has 164 yards and a team-leading two touchdowns on his 12 grabs, while Barnes, a tight end, has 15 catches for 160 yards and score. McElroy has come on late and now has snagged 14 passes for 159 yards, most of which came last week in a five catch, 47 yard performance at Bowling Green.
Prediction
It will be a very difficult uphill climb for either of these team to make the MAC Championship Game with a loss. So expect this to be an all-out battle to keep those hopes alive.
Injuries could be a key factor as well. The Rockets might be without their starting quarterback and a pair of halfbacks. But the Huskies could also be down their starting quarterback, two halfback, and a wide receiver. So, it could come down to which team has the deeper bench.
The Huskie defense has been spectacular all season long but their offense has been anemic. The Rocket offense can score but their defense has trouble stopping the pass.
If the Huskies can control the ball and run it effectively, they will be able to sneak away with another win. If the Rockets can force NIU to pass, Toledo will win.
Given the Huskies better defense, them being at home, and a slight edge in depth, I think NIU squeaks out a win.
Toledo – 21
NIU – 24