2024 Mid-American Conference Baseball Tournament Preview

The regular season is over and the MAC Tournament starts Wednesday! We’ve know the top six for a bit, but the tournament seeds are finalized!

It’s MAC Tournament time! The first round kicks off Wednesday in Avon, Ohio with six teams in the running for a spot in the national tournament. Ball State and Toledo play in the opening game set for 12:30 EST, but the weather may influence the weekend schedule.

Scattered thunderstorms, the worst kind of thunderstorms for baseball, are predicted for Wednesday afternoon. Friday and Saturday currently hold roughly a 50% chance of rain to complicate the schedule further. Every day has two or three games scheduled and no one wants to lose their starter to a two-hour rain delay.

It’s something every team has to be prepared for and could be affected by.

Every team in the field has earned their spot and has a real chance to pull off the win. How will each team try to get it done? Let’s get into it!

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The MAC Tournament Bracket

The seeds are set and the six-team tournament is a weird one. Bowling Green had the top seed locked up coming into the weekend and swept Toledo to clear the second seed, Western Michigan, by five games. The Broncos took care of their rival to grab the second seed and the final first-round bye. Ball State won two out of three from Kent State to finish third and that gave Miami the fourth seed, Kent State the fifth and Toledo the final spot.

The format for this year’s tournament is different than in the past. This is the first time since 2019 that the format was more than four teams. The last two conference tournaments were held on campus at the regular season champions field. It’s back in Avon, Ohio now and it’s not exactly a straightforward six-team tournament.

Two changes in the elimination bracket have been made to emphasize the regular season. The first-round winners are reseeded so that Bowling Green will play the lowest remaining seed and Western Michigan the highest. Then the second round will produce two losing teams and they need to fit into the elimination bracket. The lower seed will play the winner of the opening round losers and the higher seed will get a “bye” to play the winner of that game. One exception to that is if BGSU and WMU both lose their opening game, they will play each other in an elimination game. The winner of the first game in the elimination bracket will be awarded the bye and await that winner.

I like the changes for two reasons: it makes the regular season record more significant in the tournament itself, which is good, and I also like weird sports.

There is a limit to my weirdness, but I’ll tolerate a lot more than most. Honestly, this makes me think about how the tournament could be weirder without becoming too much of a lottery or a bye straight to the finals for the top seed.

Anyway, Ball State and Toledo open the tournament on Wednesday with a pitching banger. Ball State’s Merritt Beeker and Keegan Johnson had stellar starts against the Rockets and Toledo’s Grant Umberger was good but didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Jackson Bergman was coming out of the bullpen at that point in the season but was effective in 3.2 innings. It’s likely to be a pitcher’s duel in the opener.

The second game of the day could be a wild one. Kent State and Miami are going to attempt the same pitching strategy and it could go either direction. Both want to get as many outs from their starters as possible, but their strength is in their bullpen. If either offense can build an early lead, it could be over.

Bowling Green and Western Michigan await the winners. It’s not possible for Bowling Green to meet Ball State in the second round and they swept Miami and Toledo. The Falcons lost their series with Kent State so maybe that’s a series they would like to avoid. Whoever they play, their opponent will have some pitchers that are unavailable.

Western Michigan can’t meet Toledo, and they also won their series against Kent State and Miami. Ball State will have whichever starter didn’t pitch the opening game and will be a tough out for anyone.

After that and especially in the elimination bracket, it comes down to who is available to pitch for each team. Matchups and pitch counts play a major factor as the tournament progresses.

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How each team will win and lose

At the end of the regular season, the stats can be restricted to MAC-only stats and it’s magnificently clean. Each team has 30 games of data, and every team is balanced. Three games against each opponent means that there are not many exceptions or modifiers required to compare the teams.

Bowling Green is going to mash their way to the title. They averaged more than 10 runs a game against MAC opponents and have a deep lineup of bats that can do damage. Even without DJ Newman down the stretch, they continued to rack up the runs. They lead the MAC in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base plus slugging, runs per game and weighted on-base percentage. They’ve also stolen the most bases of the teams in the tournament field. Their pitching is good, but not at the same level as their offense. They allowed the second-fewest runs to MAC opponents but were below average in strikeout rate. They rely on good defense and weak contact.

Western Michigan is a mirror to Bowling Green. Their run prevention and pitching have been stellar, while their offense has been very good, but not great. And by not great I mean, not 10 runs per game great. The Broncos have pushed 7.4 across per game, third highest in the MAC, which has been enough for their pitchers this season. Eight of their pitchers have thrown at least 28 innings and only one is above the MAC average in ERA. Most are well under the 7.06 number. Hayden Berg, DJ Thompson, Luke Thelen and Joe Shapiro are all used to getting on the mound multiple times in a series. The Broncos are set up well for the tournament. They play more small ball than any other team in the field and they can limit their own output doing that.

Ball State has the potential to be a major disruptor in the tournament. Their offense is built on slugging percentage and they have two starters that can dominate a game. Merritt Beeker and Keegan Johnson have ERA’s around 4.50 and get the outs on their own. On the offensive side, Michael Hallquist, Hunter Dobbins and Blake Bevis have hit a combined 50 home runs this year. If they get hot, the Cardinals could steamroll two wins and find themselves in the winner’s bracket final. That’s where the problems would start for them. The Cardinals have searched for the third starter all season and the bullpen isn’t very deep. It would not surprise me if they find a way to the championship round.

Miami will go as far as their bullpen can carry them. Peyton Olejnik and Carson Byers are absolute studs coming out of the bullpen, but they have the same problem as Ball State. Once those guys have thrown 100-ish pitches, the rest of the pitching staff hasn’t been as consistent. Zach MacDonald, Ty Batusich and Ryland Zaborowski have mashed this season for the RedHawk offense and will need to do some damage this week.

Kent State is another team led by their offense. They lead the conference in home runs and doubles and are philosophically opposed to WMU. They only put three sacrifice bunts down this season in more than 1,000 at-bats. They let their hitters swing the bat. Their pitching staff has high strikeout numbers and low walks but the WHIP and ERA are elevated. Their pitchers have been hittable this season, but they don’t give their opponents free passes. It’s the most vulnerable they’ve been in a few years. Still the Flashes are never an easy out.

The Toledo Rockets are second in the MAC in team ERA, and their end of season numbers make it look like they should be ahead of Miami. They couldn’t turn the better stats into more wins, but they’re in the field and could be a problem for some teams relying on their offense. Run creation is their issue. Garret Pike is a monster and hit 20 home runs with a 1.112 season OPS, but if opponents work around him, there’s not much else. Luke Walton is also over 1.000 in OPS but two hitters is a solvable problem. Other players will need to outperform their season numbers for the Rockets to make a run.

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Notable Performances

The lack of midweek games led to lower volume stats this week, but that didn’t stop Blake Bevis. He drove in eight with two doubles and two home runs in three games against Kent State. He looks ready to stay hot entering the MAC Tournament.

Dylan Nevar is seeing the ball well for Western Michigan and drew five walks in a three-game series against Central Michigan. He also hit a double and a home run and was on base for CJ Richmond to drive in. Richmond has been a sensation for the WMU lineup and was a shade under .500 at the plate this week.

Merritt Beeker and Rigo Ramos passed their final tuneup tests in their final starts before the MAC Tournament. Both players pitched against teams that they could see in the MAC Tournament too.

Peyton Olejnik pitched three innings against East Tennessee and allowed a single hit while striking out seven. He’s ready for the postseason. Brennan McCune held Bowling Green in check in his two outings but it wasn’t enough in that series. He struck out six of the ten outs he recorded and allowed four to reach base.

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Series Scores: