2024 Mid-American Conference Baseball Week 11 Recap

Upsets made the MAC Tournament field too close to call. Bowling Green lost their first series and they are the only team that can be confident in their post season position.

Upsets were everywhere in Week 11. Akron won another series, Kent State beat Bowling Green twice, and Ohio took two games from Toledo. When the upsets are that prevalent, the field bunches up and now the final three weekends are going to be stressful for some teams.

Even if a team on the outside can’t fight their way into the MAC Tournament field, second place to sixth is separated by a game and a half. There are matchups, especially when aces are on the mound, that teams will want to avoid. Alas, it’s too murky at this point to predict finish positions.

It’ll a great sprint to the finish line.

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Week 11 Conference Standings

The Miami RedHawks are the hottest team in the MAC and are currently on an eight-game win streak. Their sweep of the Eastern Michigan Eagles pushes them up to third in the MAC, and makes them the largest beneficiaries of the week of upsets. The winning streak began with a non-conference victory against Butler on April 17, and shows no sign of stopping any time soon.

They are second in the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base plus slugging and tied for first in weighted on-base percentage. They have scored ten runs per game and on the pitching side, they’ve leaned on their bullpen for quality innings. They lead in bullpen earned run average at 2.72 and are second in walks plus hits per inning pitched (1.40). They’ve taken this surge from seventh place at 8-10 to third place at 14-10 in the MAC.

Bowling Green has lost a series. I repeat, the Bowling Green Falcons have lost a series. Kent State won the bread games, with the first one earned via walk-off single by Michael McNamara. Kent State was the better team across the board and traded ten-run wins in the final two games. Bowling Green maintains the top spot and Kent State moves up into fourth.

Akron is 5-1 against the directional Michigan teams and won the weekend series with Western Michigan 2-1. This was a big opportunity for the Broncos to build some space between themselves and the rest of the field, but they had a different breakdown in two games they lost. Akron is no longer an outlier in the MAC standings, which is a good sign for them.

Toledo held Ohio to 13 total runs but couldn’t find a way to win the series. Only nine of the runs were earned but it doesn’t matter. Ohio put the ball in play and outhit the Rockets in two of the three games. Toledo scored 16 runs in their win.

Northern Illinois beat Central Michigan twice to keep their MAC Tournament dreams alive. The series win keeps them within a series of the cut line with nine games to go. They’re in a tight spot but it’s not crazy that they get out of it. Central Michigan had some fantastic pitching performances to hang their hat on (Keegan Batka complete game shutout) in an otherwise down series.

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Dog fight down the stretch

We have officially arrived at the stretch run for the MAC Tournament, with seven teams within five games of each other for five spots in the postseason.

Bowling Green might be above the fray at this point. They still haven’t locked it up yet, but I’m betting it’s a matter of time. The Falcons would need to collapse, like 0-9 collapse, and six teams would have to get better than 18-12 to knock them out.

Western Michigan is in the best spot outside of the Falcons in terms of both record and schedule. They have a weekend series with Bowling Green up next, then a pair of series with teams with losing records. At one and a half games above the cut line, this weekend could see them slip down, but then there are two series they should win. They would know exactly what they need to do to keep the pressure in check. There is a disaster scenario where Bowling Green gives the Broncos the business, Northern Illinois wins the next series to climb into contention and a rivalry series gets off the rails against Central Michigan.

Miami is the hottest team in the MAC and still has their non-conference weekend to play. They have a huge series for both teams at Kent State this weekend, then a must-win series at home against Ohio. The final weekend of the regular season is their non-conference weekend, so the next two weeks will set the mood while all they can do is watch. Four wins and they should be in, three should good be as well, but less than that and it will be stressful last week of scoreboard watching.

Kent State has the toughest road home of any team and a three-game lead on the seventh-place team. Miami, Akron and Ball State combine for a 16-2 record in their last two MAC series (Ball State played NC State last weekend). These teams are hot and the Flashes don’t have margin for error. The silver lining is the number of teams that would have to outperform them is large enough to think that one of the three might not actually pull it off if Kent State struggles.

Ball State can’t let their sweep against NC State knock them off track. If the Cardinals can avoid upsets, they should rack up the wins they need before the final week against Kent State.

Toledo is the team on the cut line with a 2.5-game lead in the standings, and they really need to put Eastern Michigan away this weekend. Their non-conference weekend is the next weekend with a season finale against rival Bowling Green. No one wants to head into a series against Bowling Green needing wins.

Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan are on the outside right now. The Huskies are the closest team to the MAC Tournament and it’s playoff time for them. They play Ball State, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan to finish the season. To catch the Rockets or any other team ahead of them, they cannot lose a series. A 2-1 series win only nets one game in the games behind column and they have three series remaining. Sweeping Ball State would draw them even, but that’s a tall task. Stranger things have happened though.

The Eagles are more than a series out of contention and trending the wrong direction, but they play the two teams directly in front of them. They need to find a way to survive a series with Bowling Green in the middle, but the path is there and they have direct control over it.

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Quick Notes:

• Western Michigan at Akron: Akron takes the final two games from the Broncos! Western Michigan used their trademark big innings to take game one late, but they had issues in the next two games. Akron did find big innings, five runs off Hayden Berg in game two and seven runs in the bottom of the second inning to hang in there. Western Michigan shot out of the gate, but couldn’t make it stick.
• Bowling Green at Kent State: The Flashes won the first game with a walk-off single and cruised to a game three win behind a solid offensive performance and Eric Chalus pitching into the seventh inning allowing just two runs. Bowling Green’s pitching dominated game two and held Kent State to five hits on the way to a 10-0 win.
• Northern Illinois at Central Michigan: This series had excellent pitching throughout headlined by a pair of complete games. Ty Brachbill completed NIU’s game-one win in 119 pitches and stranded all seven base runners he allowed. Keegan Batka returned the favor on Sunday with a complete game shutout with 14 strikeouts. NIU built an 8-0 lead through seven innings in the middle game and held on to take the series. The game finished 9-6.
• Eastern Michigan at Miami: A total of 57 runs were scored in three games in stark contrast to the previous series. Miami swept the series after trailing in each game. The RedHawks’ excellent bullpen allowed nine runs in 14.2 innings while their hitters teed off on their opponent’s bullpen. They scored 20 runs in 14 innings off the Eagles relief pitchers.
• Toledo at Ohio: Toledo held the Bobcats to 4.3 runs per game and lost the series 2-1. Ohio was the better offense on average by most metrics except runs scored. Toledo did manage to score 16 runs in the middle game with 17 hits and eight walks collected. Dillon Masters and the A-Squad of relievers stifled the Rockets in game one and Blake Gaskey dominated game three. He’s turned in three consecutive starts of six innings or more with two or fewer runs allowed. Ohio might have found something in the JUCO transfer.
• Ball State: NC State can hit the ball. They only struck out seven times in the entire series and had 12 extra-base hits. The Cardinal hitters had to earn everything at the plate and couldn’t force NC State into any mistakes. Tough weekend that is hopefully easy to move on from for the Cardinals.

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Notable Performances

Miami hitters dominate the lineup after scoring 12 runs per game against Eastern Michigan. David Novak, Evan Appelwick, Dillon Baker and Ryland Zaborowski combined to drive in 26 runs and hit six home runs. Winning baseball games is easy when half of the lineup is on fire.

Throw in Carson Byers allowing two base runners in 3.1 innings of relief work is basically cheating at this point. All of the relievers pitched at least three innings and kept hitters off the bases. Luke Olson for Ohio earned three saves and struck out eight of 12 batters faced. The only batter he walked turned into a double play in the next at bat.

Keegan Batka and Ty Brachbill traded complete games int the Central Michigan and Northern Illinois series. Neither gave up an earned run and Batka didn’t give up a run at all. Brachbill relied on his defense more but the team picked him up and gave him 20 outs on Friday while he earned seven by himself.

CJ Richmond for Western Michigan led the MAC in weighted on base average in 14 plate appearances. Seven hits, three for extra bases, a pair of walks and a stolen base is great weekend. He’s fourth in the MAC in qualified hitters in runs created, which reflects baserunning, unlike wOBA and OPS.

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A look ahead to Week 12:

The Miami at Kent State series is the obvious series of the week. They are separated in the standings by a half-game, but Kent State has three in hand on the RedHawks. A sweep for either team would be huge, either essentially locking a spot in the MAC Tournament or being put in a vulnerable position.

Ball State is 12-9 and Northern Illinois is 9-12. They could be tied at the end of the weekend, or the Huskies could be all but eliminated. The Huskies pitching is good enough to pull it off and Colin Summerhill leads the MAC in home runs. Ball State has depth on their side and are the favorites.

Western Michigan could fall into the soup if they can’t win at least one at Bowling Green. If the Falcons lose another series it could be a warning sign heading into the MAC Tournament. If they lose the series they would be 4-5 in nine conference games. That’s just baseball sometimes, but that looks like a crack in the foundation after a 15-0 start.

If Toledo beats Eastern Michigan the top six could start to separate from seventh and eighth. Then the question would become about seeding in the top six, but that’s not as fun as the drama of someone surging into the MAC Tournament. Eastern Michigan needs this series in the worst way.

If the upsets are the theme of the week again, the potential for upheaval is all over week 12.

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Series Scores: