Two 5-3 teams grind it out at The Factory. Bowl eligibility will be rewarded to the harder worker.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 2 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: Rynearson Stadium — Ypsilanti, MI
- Spread: Toledo (-9.5)
- Over/under: 54.5
- All-time series: Toledo leads, 38-13
- Last meeting: Toledo 49, Eastern Michigan 23 — November 8, 2023
- Current streak: Toledo, 2 (2022-23)
Setting the scene
Identical records meet at The Factory on Saturday.
The Toledo Rockets and Eastern Michigan Eagles both wield 5-3 records and 2-2 conference marks heading into their Week 10 matchup, signifying bowl eligibility is on the line for the winner. Additionally, this could be an elimination game from the MAC Championship as picking up a third loss in conference play could doom the loser in a competitive title race.
Hoping to remain alive in that race are two veteran coaches, as Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton is in year 11 at the helm and Toledo’s Jason Candle is in year nine.
Toledo Rockets outlook
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Toledo has experienced difficulty in stringing together consecutive wins in 2024. The Rockets followed up a domination at Mississippi State with a loss to WKU. Then they followed up their 2023 MAC title game revenge win over Miami (OH) with a loss to Buffalo. Finally they bested one rival in Northern Illinois but couldn’t keep the momentum going in a Week 9 defeat to arch-rival Bowling Green. However, the Rockets haven’t dropped consecutive games this year and they hope this trip to The Factory gets them back on track.
The Rockets’ greatest strength is their passing attack, which ranks 35th in the FBS in yards per game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason returned from injury last week to deliver 320 passing yards and two touchdowns against Bowling Green, although two interceptions — including one pick-six — elevated the Falcons to a 41-26 victory. Still, when Gleason is moving the ball downfield, Toledo’s offense is at its best. He threw for multiple touchdowns in six of his seven starts, and he presents the ability to pick up tough yards as a runner, earning a rushing score in three of his last four games.
Gleason’s No. 1 target is now atop the record books in Toledo history. After a career performance of nine receptions, 164 yards, and two touchdowns last week, wide receiver Jerjuan Newton rose into first place all-time in receiving touchdowns in a Rocket uniform. He has 10 on the season to rank second in the FBS, and he keeps pushing the limits of what he’s capable of — resetting his career-high in receiving yards three times during the month of October. Newton is an everything wide receiver, meaning he’s a threat everywhere on the route tree. He operates well in space on dump offs, yet he burns coverage on go routes, giving Toledo’s offense an advantage it can work with against any opponent.
Junior Vandeross III, the team leader with 52 receptions, and tight end Anthony Torres (five receiving touchdowns) are other threats included in the Toledo passing attack. While that element of the Rockets’ offense thrives on a weekly basis, the run game is far less consistent. Growing pains were imminent for a team which replaced all five starting linemen and the FBS’s eighth leading rusher, but through eight games, Toledo still hasn’t figured out the run game. With Willie Shaw sitting out due to injury since September, Connor Walendzak has taken over the lead back duties, and he aims to become the first Rocket rusher to attain 80 yards in a game this year.
On defense, the Rockets field an above average unit which is 43rd in fewest points allowed. Their specialty is stopping the run as they limit opponents to 3.6 yards per carry and 132 yards per game in that department. Toledo ranks top 20 nationally in tackles for loss, and the run-stuffing is primarily linebacker led. Linebackers Jackson Barrow and Daniel Bolden lead the team in tackles behind the line of scrimmage with 8.0 and 5.5, respectively, and seven different Rockets have at least four tackles for loss on the year.
While Toledo’s pass coverage isn’t as strong as it was a year ago with cornerback Quinyon Mitchell manning the unit, the Rockets still enjoy great play from their safeties. Maxen Hook and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren lead the team in tackles and Braden Awls has been the team’s primary ballhawk with three interceptions in 2024.
Eastern Michigan Eagles outlook
Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
By defeating Conference USA contender Jacksonville State and storming back from an 18-point fourth quarter deficit to stun rival Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan’s 2024 season had been a rousing success. However, the Eagles suffered a shocking loss in Week 9, missing out on a golden opportunity for bowl eligibility.
Eastern Michigan trailed Akron 18-0 at halftime, but the Eagles’ offense woke up to generate 21 unanswered points to claim a fourth quarter lead. However, spotting the Zips 18 points ultimately did Eastern Michigan in, as Akron needed just one second half touchdown to pull off the upset, and that occurred with four minutes remaining. After missing out on a much-needed victory, Eastern Michigan closes its season against four opponents currently .500 or better.
What went wrong vs. Akron? Eastern Michigan was subject to four three-and-outs in the first half with an inability to establish much on the ground. The Eagles were held well below their season average with 121 rushing yards on 34 attempts, as lead back Delbert Mimms III only picked up 2.6 yards per carry. Mimms typically sees at least 20 handoffs per game, and when the NC State transfer is thriving, so is the Eagles’ offense. He produced 145 and 90 yards in the Eagles’ two MAC wins this year over Kent State and Central Michigan, but averaged under four yards per carry with 78 and 58 yards in losses to Miami (OH) and Akron. Although Eastern Michigan primarily makes its mark offensively through the air, it’s essential for Mimms to get comfortable early to keep the unit multidimensional.
The biggest difference between 2023 Eastern Michigan and the 2024 iteration is its aerial presence. Buffalo transfer Cole Snyder opened up the verticality of the offense significantly, and the third-year FBS starting quarterback is fresh off consecutive 300-yard performances, delivering a career-high 354 yards against Akron. What Snyder does best is refrain from turning the ball over, and the quarterback only has two interceptions this year on 272 attempts, preventing Eastern Michigan from giving games away on self-inflicted wounds. Snyder is a decent runner as well, but the Eagles surrender 2.9 sacks per game which offsets a substantial amount of his progress in that category.
Terry Lockett Jr. and Oran Singleton are the receivers greatly benefiting from Snyder’s presence, having 471 and 454 receiving yards on the year, respectively. Both flirted with 100-yard performances last week, and although they have similar yardage totals, the receivers play completely different styles. Lockett is more of a deep, explosive threat while Singleton is a reliable short-yardage specialist, often moving the chains on screens and quick slants.
Defensively, Eastern Michigan allows 26 points per game, and the unit has actually taken a step back in MAC play compared to non-conference play. Still, the Eagles have several strengths on that side of the ball and one is getting off the field on critical downs. Eastern Michigan only allows 35.2 percent of third downs to be converted and it ranks No. 1 in the FBS in fourth down defense, only giving up three conversions on 14 attempts in 2024.
Strong defensive line play is a defining attribute of the Eagles’ defense, and Justin Jefferson and Peyton Price are among the key contributors. These linemen combine for 7.5 sacks on the season and their pressure often leads to opponents coughing up the ball. Eastern Michigan has only picked off three passes this year, but the Eagles still boast one of the nation’s better turnover margins at a +6 with a litany of fumble recoveries. Only Duke has recovered more loose balls than the Eagles’ nine.
Prediction
Toledo and Eastern Michigan play somewhat similar styles offensively. The passing attacks are the strengths of the offenses, and Tucker Gleason and Cole Snyder both approach the game in a similar manner. You’ll see 300-yard performances from both quarterbacks on a recurring basis, and both are tough runners willing to fight for extra yards to bolster their teams’ run game.
There should be a decent amount of points in this one, as neither defense is playing its strongest in MAC play. Eastern Michigan allowed 34+ to three of its four MAC opponents while Toledo is fresh off Bowling Green posting 41 points in the Battle of I-75 Rivalry.
Toledo’s ability to stuff Eastern Michigan’s run game, combined with another big day by Jerjuan Newton will be the deciding factors that lift the Rockets to a close victory at The Factory.
Prediction: Toledo 33, Eastern Michigan 26