The first Tuesday night MACtion of the year features a rivalry trophy game — The Redbird Rivalry.
Game notes
- Time and date: Tuesday, November 5 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Scheumann Stadium — Muncie, IN
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-12.5)
- Over/under: 47.5
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 23-13-1
- Last meeting: Miami (OH) 17, Ball State 15 — November 25, 2023
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 4 (2020-23)
Setting the scene
It’s here.
It’s the time of year where the darkness approaches at an earlier hour. The hue of the leaves changes from green to brown while the air gets cooler and crisper. Christmas commercials make their way to the airwaves while families start preparing for their Thanksgiving travel plans.
And on Tuesday nights, you’re seated comfortably in front of your television, watching the grand spectacle that is Midweek MACtion.
Midweek MACtion’s origins dates to the early 2000s, but the phenomenon took another turn in the early 2010s. In 2011, Toledo was involved in 63-60 and 66-63 finishes in back-to-back weeks. In 2013, Jordan Lynch took the college football world by storm as his Heisman campaign was broadcast to the entire country on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
And now we’re here. The annual tradition commences once again Tuesday night with a two-game double-header. And what better way to kick off the Midweek MACtion than a rivalry trophy game?
Reigning MAC champion Miami (OH) (4-4, 3-1 MAC) and Ball State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) will both compete for the Redbird Rivalry trophy as America lasers its focus onto Muncie, IN for a night.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Miami (OH) had some of the loftiest expectations for a MAC team in quite some time.
The RedHawks entered 2023 holding the conference crown after defeating Toledo in the MAC Championship Game. They returned a slew of talent from an 11-win team, ranging from sixth-year senior quarterback Brett Gabbert to MAC Defensive Player of the Year outside linebacker Matt Salopek. Head coach Chuck Martin eyed something no MAC team has attained since 2011 and 2012 — back-to-back MAC titles.
It wasn’t the most promising start for the RedHawks, slumping to a 1-4 record against a challenging schedule, but the climb back up has been impressive. Miami rides a three-game win streak, controlling its own destiny for a second-straight appearance in Detroit the first weekend of December.
Simply put, Miami has its swagger back. The offense struggled to break 20 points during its 1-4 start, not even earning its first road touchdown until Oct. 5. But now everything is clicking and the RedHawks are averaging 38 points per game across their last three outings, winning all three games by double-digits. It’s been quality competition too in terms of MAC opponents, as Miami cruised to comfortable victories against 5-3 Ohio and 5-4 Eastern Michigan.
What changed? For one, Brett Gabbert is playing the most efficient football of his six-year college career at the moment. He’s thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions during this three-game win streak, and he’s only taken three sacks and thrown 12 incompletions over that inspiring stretch. While Gabbert hasn’t been as explosive in past years — throwing under 200 yards in four of eight starts — he’s still primed for the occasional electrifying performance. He’s thrown for 491 and 352 on Tuesday nights before, and he’s equipped with a talented receiving corps where that remains an option this Tuesday.
Cade McDonald has established himself as an effective No. 1 option with 38 receptions and 507 yards on the year. Javon Tracy and Reggie Virgil are also frequently utilized targets, possessing over 400 yards receiving in 2024. All three receivers have a 110+ yard performance this year, proving that any are capable of stepping up and taking over a game.
But the biggest change in Miami’s offensive success involves the run game. Running back Keyon Mozee is currently on a heater, rushing for 100+ yards in four of his last five outings. There’s a formula that’s applied to all eight games where Mozee hitting the century mark signifies a Miami win, while Mozee rushing for 40 yards or fewer signifies a Miami loss. Essentially, it speaks to the importance of Miami remaining multidimensional on offense and not needing to rely heavily on Gabbert to push the ball vertically all game.
The RedHawks possess veteran talent on both sides of the trenches. Defensively, they still seek a more disruptive pass rush, only registering 1.6 sacks per game with defensive end Brian Ugwu leading the charge. Still, Miami is finding ways to generate routine stops on that side of the ball and that’s been a consistent strength throughout the season — even during the team’s 1-4 start. Miami hasn’t allowed more than 30 points in 21 consecutive outings, daring back to the 2023 season opener.
Matt Salopek remains the star of the defense. The tackling machine is on pace for his fourth-straight 100-tackle season with 71 takedowns this year, and he leads a rushing defense which didn’t allow a 40-yard rusher in back-to-back weeks. Ty Wise and Corban Hondru have also been key pieces from the linebacking corps with Wise totaling six tackles for loss and Hondru succeeding in coverage with two interceptions on the year — and he’ll be instrumental in covering Ball State’s frequently used tight ends Tuesday night.
Turnovers are another reason the RedHawks are scorching hot. They won the turnover battle 5-1 over the last three games after losing it 8-7 across their first five. When it comes to forcing turnovers, cornerback Raion Strader is a name to watch. Strader only has one interception on the season, but he creates enough opportunity for more to happen as he ranks first on the RedHawks with 10 pass breakups.
Ball State Cardinals outlook
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Ball State is also playing a much higher level of football since the dawn of October than it did in the opening month of the season.
The Cardinals enter Midweek MACtion having won two of their last three, and even the loss instilled confidence in what this team is capable of accomplishing — taking a currently ranked Vanderbilt team to the fourth quarter in a tie ballgame, before succumbing to a hard-fought 24-14 defeat.
Ball State’s last win was its most impressive of 2024, winning the Bronze Stalk rivalry trophy over Northern Illinois on a last-second field goal by Jackson Courville — just 13 seconds after Northern Illinois hit a late go-ahead field goal. The Cardinals defeated a physical, defensive-driven Huskie team through means of its defense, winning the turnover battle 4-0 while still out-gaining the opponent.
Defense is what caused the Cardinals to slump 1-4, as they fielded the second-worst scoring defense and total defense in the FBS through five games — allowing 60+ points twice in the non-conference slate. While you can’t erase the past, Ball State is improving the present after stellar showings on that end vs. Vanderbilt and Northern Illinois. The Cardinals still rank 131st in scoring defense at 30.4 points allowed and 130th in total defense at 477 yards allowed, but by continuing to force inefficient outings from opposing quarterbacks, those rankings can steadily climb each week for the rest of the season.
Edge rusher Brandon Berger is leading the pass rush with 5.0 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss on the season, and he also rushes with a set of active hands — batting down three balls at the line of scrimmage. The Cardinals are middle of the road when it comes to getting to the quarterback, and what they need from the pass rush most is more turnover opportunities. Ball State is toward the basement of the FBS with only four passes intercepted on the year, and before the Northern Illinois game, it only generated five total takeaways in seven contests.
Other names to watch on this defense include outside linebacker Keionte Newson, who operates as the leading tackler with 46 stops, and cornerback Myles Norwood, who aims to make inefficient Miami’s passing attack with a team-high seven pass breakups on the year.
While the Cardinals have been shaky defensively throughout the year, the offense really got things rolling in late September — even in losses. Ball State was simply outscored in 37-34 and 45-42 defeats to Central Michigan and Western Michigan, respectively, producing enough fireworks to give itself a chance to win.
Kadin Semonza captains a fairly efficient passing game, connecting on 66.5 percent of attempts — having completed above 60 percent of passes in all eight starts this year. He’s limiting his mistakes too, finishing three consecutive starts without tossing an interception to fortify Ball State’s offense. The passing attack is the stronger element of Ball State’s offense, and Semzona finds a way to work a bevy of weapons in — especially Tanner Koziol.
Koziol is fifth nationally in receptions with 64. The frequently targeted tight end is fourth among all tight ends in receiving yards, owning a team-high 580 in a spectacular season. He’s a threat to move the ball downfield and even a greater threat in the red zone as the recipient of six of Semonza’s 15 touchdown strikes. The 6’7”, 237 pound future All-MAC selection can be a nightmare matchup, so Miami’s defense must be careful about how they guard him Tuesday night.
Another skill position players of note on the Cardinals is running back Braedon Sloan who has taken over as the workhorse back with 502 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on the season. Not only is Sloan the primary focal point of the run game, he’s an essential component of the aerial attack as well. He is second on the Cardinals with 317 receiving yards and his 27 receptions are third on the team. When it comes to wide receivers, Ball State doesn’t use them as frequently as most teams, but Cam Pickett stands as the No. 1 option with 29 catches, and he’s often looked to as a short-yardage specialist.
Prediction
MACtion is BACKtion.
The Redbird Rivalry takes center stage on the first Tuesday night of the new year of MAC football, and this matchup has the makings of a somewhat close and fun contest.
Ball State is playing its best football right now, and the Cardinals’ sharp defensive improvement across the last two weeks is a major reason why. Can the Cardinals thrive without relying on another 4-0 turnover output as a crutch like they did vs. Northern Illinois? That is to be determined, but Ball State still should be able to register some points on this Miami defense through the effective and heavily-utilized Kadin Semonza to Tanner Koziol connection.
However, Miami’s playing on a different level offensively right now, and the RedHawks’ multifaceted offense will show Tuesday night. Keyon Mozee can capitalize against a run defense which allows 5.6 yards per carry, and Miami’s veteran offensive line should control the trenches in this one. Brett Gabbert won’t need an eye-opening 300-yard performance to win, but he’ll provide just enough aerial production to get a multi-score victory for the contending RedHawks.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 34, Ball State 24