It’s a Tuesday night rematch of the 2020 MAC Championship Game.
Game notes
- Time and date: Tuesday, November 12 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS Sports Network
- Location: UB Stadium — Amherst, NY
- Spread: Buffalo (-4.5)
- Over/under: 53.5
- All-time series: Ball State leads, 11-2
- Last meeting: Ball State 20, Buffalo 3 — November 23, 2021
- Current streak: Ball State, 2 (2020-21)
Setting the scene
Tuesday night MACtion returns for a second week!
All three games on the Tuesday night slate kick off simultaneously at 7 p.m. ET, and one of those three matchups comes with recent historical significance.
Ball State and Buffalo were the participants of the 2020 MAC Championship Game, where the Cardinals pulled off a 38-28 upset over the undefeated Bulls, led by an effective linebacking corps. The Cardinals and Bulls both won their bowl games and finished No. 23 and No. 25 in the final AP Poll. To this date, they are the last two MAC teams to earn a spot in the season-rankings.
Tuesday marks just the second meeting since that fateful MAC Championship, and Ball State has heavily controlled the series with 11 victories in 13 meetings. But Buffalo won a key battle in 2008, ending the undefeated Cardinals’ BCS hopes in a previous MAC Championship Game upset.
Buffalo enters Tuesday night as the favorite with bowl eligibility in sight, while Ball State is eliminated from bowl hopes with a loss on the road.
Ball State Cardinals outlook
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Ball State (3-6, 2-3 MAC) is unquestionably a better team than it was in September, but there are several factors which may prevent the Cardinals from bowling for the third-straight season.
One, Ball State drew the toughest schedule in the MAC. Nine of the 11 FBS opponents on the Cardinals’ schedule are currently above .500, and they must clear a difficult road of Buffalo, Bowling Green, and Ohio to attain six wins.
The Cardinals have lived up to the challenge against stiffer competition lately, taking Miami (OH) to the wire last Tuesday, knocking off Northern Illinois on a game-winning field goal, and entering the fourth quarter tied with Vanderbilt.
One noticeable improvement in these games was the offense, which is moving the ball respectably under quarterback Kadin Semonza. Semonza threw for 280 yards against a viable Miami defense last Tuesday, but the offense’s shortcoming was the inability to run the ball. That provided Ball State many long distance situations on third down, and it finished 4-of-12 in those situations.
Figuring out the run is what lifts Ball State into an upper echelon offense in the conference. The Cardinals haven’t produced a 100-yard rusher vs. FBS competition this year, and they’ve split the carries quite evenly between Braedon Sloan and Vaughn Pemberton lately, hoping one emerges as a No. 1 option. Former quarterback turned utility player Kiael Kelly will also receive snaps at wildcat hoping to spark the run, adding another dynamic to this facet of the game.
When it comes to skill position players, one stands tall above the rest — literally and figuratively. Tanner Koziol is a 6’7”, 237 pound tight end and one of the best in the country at the position. With 68 receptions, he is seventh among all FBS receivers and second among tight ends, and no other Cardinal has half the amount this season. Koziol has 629 receiving yards and six touchdowns, and he’ll be the overwhelming target hoping to draw size and speed mismatches against different position groups throughout the night.
At wide receiver, Ball State may have unearthed a secret weapon last Tuesday. Justin Bowick entered the Miami game with just five catches and 64 yards all year, but he dominated the RedHawk secondary with eight receptions, 171 yards, and a 57-yard touchdown down the seam where he burned coverage with speed. A home run threat at receiver was lacking from the offense all year, but Semonza can greatly benefit from Bowick’s recent breakout.
On defense, Ball State isn’t the same team it was two months ago — and that’s a good thing. Long gone are the days of the Cardinals allowing 60 burgers, as they’ve limited three-straight opponents under 28 points.
Edge rusher Brandon Berger has stepped up during this stretch to become a star. He leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.0 sacks, and his backfield pressure created an opportunity for a special teams pick-six one week ago. Active hands are a mainstay in his game, and he ranks second on the Cardinals in pass breakups thanks to his presence around the line of scrimmage.
Outside linebacker Keionte Newson is another name to watch on the defense as the team’s leading tackler and the main counter to the run game. Ball State’s ability to stop the run seemingly improves on a weekly basis. Each of its last four opponents attained under 150 rushing yards after it surrendered well over 150 to each of its first four FBS opponents this season. However, the aerial defense could use similar improvement as the Cardinals yield the fifth-most passing yards per game in the country.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
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Buffalo (5-4, 3-2 MAC) is one of the pleasant surprises this year in the MAC.
Fresh off the heels of a 3-9 season and an unexpected coaching change, the Bulls are one win away from bowl eligibility. The architect behind this rapid rebuild is none other than former Ball State head coach Pete Lembo, who is succeeding in his first head coaching gig since leading the Cardinals to a 10-win season in the early 2010s.
Yet, Buffalo is one of the hardest MAC teams to get a consistent read on. Toward the beginning of the year, the Bulls were renowned as one of the league’s defensive juggernauts, utilizing stellar linebacker play to consistently limit opponents to 20 points or fewer. In mid-October, the Bulls unlocked an unforeseen level of offensive execution, but it came with a cost. The defense has allowed 30 points or greater in three-straight games, and the team is suddenly finding itself in weekly shootouts.
The most noticeable difference between September Buffalo and November Buffalo is the progression of starting quarterback CJ Ogbonna. Toward the beginning of the season, witnessing 200 passing yards from the Bulls was unheard of, as Ogbonna didn’t cross that threshold until his seventh start on Oct. 19. Now, it’s the norm and he’s averaged 259 passing yards per game since that date. Even more impressive, he’s taken great care of the ball, delivering 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his first season as Buffalo’s starter. Despite being utilized primarily on designed QB runs last year, the ground game hasn’t always been there for Ogbonna in 2024. However, he’s coming off a season-high 63 rushing yards vs. Akron and perhaps that performance could give him more comfort as a runner.
Speaking of the run game, that’s another element of Buffalo’s offense which has tremendously advanced since mid-October. Al-Jay Henderson took over as the lead back last month and he’s on a tear with four-straight outings above 80 rushing yards — including showings of 142 and 101 yards over that span. Henderson’s 5.6 yards per carry has kept Buffalo multidimensional on offense, allowing the team to manage 30+ points in three of its last four.
Other skill position players of note on Buffalo’s offense include Victor Snow and JJ Jenkins. They’ve been the top two receivers all year with 33 and 22 receptions, respectively, and they’ll be the main options guiding Ogbonna in the passing game. Buffalo doesn’t take too many deep shots, so they’ll primarily operate in the short to medium game Tuesday.
Defensively, Buffalo presents an All-American candidate which Ball State must watch at all times. Inside linebacker Shaun Dolac is unquestionably a focal point of all opponents’ film study sessions as he ranks first in the FBS with 120 total tackles. This is nothing new for Dolac, who previously led the FBS in solo tackles in 2022. But the star linebacker is more than just a run stuffer — he features a loaded stat-line with 11.5 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, two interceptions, and three pass breakups.
If one star linebacker wasn’t enough, how about a second one? Red Murdock is third nationally in tackles at 107, and he’s been a backfield menace as well with 10 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles for the second season in a row. With Dolac and Murdock manning the middle, the defense is best at stopping the run. Add defensive end Kobe Stewart (team-high 6.5 sacks) to the mix, and the talent in the front seven is clear.
However, Buffalo’s passing defense has been a concern lately, ranking 116th in passing yards allowed. Forcing turnovers is a potential area of improvement on the back end as the Bulls have only intercepted seven passes in nine games.
Prediction
The opening week of Midweek MACtion didn’t present the closest of finishes, but this Buffalo vs. Ball State matchup has potential to be the best one yet.
Ball State is playing its best football on both sides right now, and the Cardinals showed the ability the past three weeks to punch well above their record and take Vanderbilt and Miami (OH) down to the wire, while beating Northern Illinois. Buffalo plays host after a few extra days of rest, and the Bulls’ offense is clicking better than ever, although the defense has been a casualty during this stretch. Given these trends, expect a handful of points in this one — a far cry from the 20-3 result last time these teams battled it out.
But the difference in this one is Buffalo’s offense presents more versatility. Shaun Dolac, Red Murdock, and the Bulls defense can limit the Ball State run game, while Buffalo should be able to thrive to some extent in both facets of its offense.
Prediction: Buffalo 30, Ball State 28