Miami is trending toward another MAC title game. Can Kent State do the unthinkable?
Game notes
- Time and date: Wednesday, November 13 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: Yager Stadium — Oxford, OH
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-30)
- Over/under: 45.5
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 52-18
- Last meeting: Miami (OH) 23, Kent State 3 — September 30, 2023
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 2 (2022-23)
Setting the scene
Wednesday night MACtion presents a matchup between two opposite sides of a coin.
The Miami (OH) RedHawks (5-4, 4-1 MAC) are the hottest team in the MAC right now. The reigning champions ride a 4-game win streak, and they control their own destiny for a second-straight MAC Championship Game appearance, sitting atop the conference standings in a four-way tie.
The Kent State Golden Flashes (0-9, 0-5 MAC) are essentially the 134th ranked team of the 134 FBS teams. Not only are they the only winless team in the country — they haven’t even led for a single second all year. Fresh off their third shutout of the year, the Flashes are looking for any sign of hope as considerable underdogs in Oxford, OH.
Kent State Golden Flashes outlook
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
There is nowhere to go but upward for Kent State.
It’s been a grueling season in Northeast Ohio, where the Golden Flashes are the only FBS team searching for their first win of the season. They squandered their best opportunity in Week 2 against FCS program St. Francis (PA) (which is currently 3-6 and has been shut out by two FCS opponents this year). Speaking of shutouts, Kent State is fresh off one as nothing went its way in a 41-0 rout vs. Ohio last Wednesday night. The Golden Flashes have now been blanked three times, and there’s a CVS receipt of stats to highlight the team’s struggles in 2024.
They’re second-to-last in scoring offense (15.1 points per game), last in total offense (236 yards per game), last in rushing offense (74 yards per game), last in third down conversion percentage (19.7 percent), third-to-last in completion percentage (46.1 percent), last in scoring defense (46 points allowed per game), last in total defense (527 yards allowed per game), last in rushing defense (264 yards allowed per game), and fifth-to-last in turnover margin (-10).
The team is suffering from weaknesses in a multitude of areas, and it doesn’t help that the roster is overwhelmingly injured. Kent State started its fourth-string true freshman quarterback Ruel Tomlinson against Ohio, and Tomlinson finished 8-of-18 for 62 yards and an interception in his first collegiate start against a feisty Bobcat defense. Head coach Kenni Burns said they’ll assess if typical starter Tommy Ulatowski is able to overcome his injury this week. If not, Tomlinson will log his second start Wednesday.
Regardless of the quarterback, Kent State hasn’t been able to keep him upright. The Golden Flashes rank below 120th in sacks allowed per game (3.3) and tackles for loss allowed (7.8), and the team is still sorting through different offensive line combinations (with a massive injury bug wiping out several of the original starters), hoping to land on an optimal combo down the stretch of the season.
But the Golden Flashes’ offense isn’t devoid of star talent. They trot out two All-MAC receivers in Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea who have maintained full health throughout the season. When Kent State is able to deliver them the ball, the two take the offense to another level. McCray recorded 188 yards and 213 yards in the first two MAC games of the year, and he’s looking to replicate another one of those jaw-dropping performances after three-straight games under 30 yards. Floriea also has a pair of 100-yard games under his belt this year, and he’s another weapon Kent State will look toward, as the Golden Flashes’ preferred method of moving the ball is through the air.
Defensively, it’s been tough sledding all year, but the walls are caving in even further. Starting outside linebacker Rocco Nicholl was lost for the season on a torn ACL, and he was the team’s leading tackler prior to his injury. Defensive tackle Oliver Billotte is another key loss on that side of the ball, as he provided considerable pressure in the middle of the line of scrimmage all year. But amidst the injuries, certain individuals are stepping up. One is strong safety Josh Baka who tallied 18 tackles and two pass breakups in a standout performance vs. Ohio. Another is defensive end Kam Olds who is responsible for six of the team’s 14 sacks.
Even more pressure is needed from the defense though as Kent State requires turnover luck to turn its fortune around. The Golden Flashes have only intercepted three passes and recovered three fumbles all year, and an early takeaway might be what the team needs to establish its first lead, and then go from there.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the RedHawks.
Miami entered 2024 with its highest expectations of the Chuck Martin era. Fresh off an 11-3 campaign and a MAC Championship Game victory while returning a horde of key contributors, the RedHawks seemed slated for a repeat. However, a tough non-conference schedule and a MAC opener loss to Toledo set Martin’s team at 1-4 overall.
But just like a shooting guard on a cold streak, all Miami needed to see was one shot go in. The RedHawks thoroughly defeated Eastern Michigan 38-14 on the road on Oct. 12, and they haven’t even trailed in a second half since. They’re riding a four-game win streak headed into what should be their easiest matchup of the year — a rare time where a traditionally lower-scoring Miami team is pegged as a 30-point favorite over a fellow conference opponent.
What changed for Miami during this win streak? Primarily, the offense. The RedHawks failed to exceed 20 points in regulation during their 1-5 start, but on this win streak, they’re averaging 35.3 points per game. The biggest difference between September Miami and late October/November Miami is the presence of the run game. Keyon Mozee has been unlocked from the backfield, and when Mozee succeeds, the whole team does. The law of Keyon Mozee states: when the running back attains 100 rushing yards, Miami wins (5-0), but when he finishes under 40 yards, Miami loses (0-4). That alone shows how instrumental the ground game is to the RedHawks’ scoring output.
Miami will always show comfort at quarterback as long as Brett Gabbert is handling snaps. The sixth-year senior is a reliable weapon in the passing game. Sure, he’ll take a slew of downfield shots and hurt his completion percentage. Gabbert has only connected on 57.8 percent of throws this year, but as long as he’s preventing turnovers, the RedHawks are in stellar shape. He has refrained from throwing a single interception during this four-game win streak while totaling 11 touchdown passes over the span. Additionally (with in-season offensive line improvement playing role), he is only taking one sack per game during this stretch, when it was three sacks per game over the course of the 1-4 start.
When it comes to defending Gabbert and the passing game, there are three dangerous receivers capable of scorching defenses at any moment. Javon Tracy, Reggie Virgil, and Cade McDonald are almost identical in the stat sheet, featuring 514, 510, and 507 receiving yards on the year, respectively. McDonald was the star toward the beginning of the season, but recently, it’s been the Tracy and Virgil show. Tracy rides a three-game streak of recording a touchdown while Virgil has five in his last four outings.
Despite the newfound offensive success, the defense is still the stronger unit in Oxford. Miami hasn’t allowed over 30 points in 22 consecutive games, and not even Notre Dame or Cincinnati could break that threshold. The unit is heavily linebacker driven, as Matt Salopek and Ty Wise are two of the MAC’s best. Salopek won MAC Defensive Player of the Year honors and the star tackler is gearing for his fourth-straight season with 100 stops — totaling 80 in his first nine games, to go along with 6.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions.
Interceptions are another factor playing heavily into the RedHawks’ midseason turnaround. Miami didn’t even record its first interception until Oct. 5. Since that date, Miami has eight interceptions with outside linebacker Corban Hondru fielding three and shutdown cornerback Raion Strader adding two. Strader will be an instrumental force in locking up Kent State’s talented receivers as he boasts 40 tackles and 11 pass breakups in a likely all-conference campaign.
Prediction
It’s rare to see a 30-point spread in any MAC game given the league’s tremendous parity over the years. But this is the conference’s hottest team and reigning champion pitted against what has objectively been the worst team in the FBS this year by record.
A healthy Tommy Ulatowski is Kent State’s key to pulling off the upset of the year, as Ulatowski proved to move the ball exceptionally well downfield in matchups against Ball State and Eastern Michigan. However, Miami’s defense is 32nd nationally in containing the air, limiting opponents to an average of 194 yards on a 58.8 completion percentage.
The RedHawks should be able to pitch a shutout or a near shutout on a Kent State offense which struggles mightily without the deep shots to Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea. Meanwhile, Keyon Mozee and the Miami run game should light up the box score against the nation’s worst run defense, as the RedHawks cruise to bowl eligibility Wednesday night.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 34, Kent State 3