Can Kent State pull out a win before its 2024 season comes to a close?
Game notes
- Time and date: Tuesday, November 26 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: UB Stadium — Amherst, NY
- Spread: Buffalo (-22.5)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: Buffalo leads, 15-14
- Last meeting: Buffalo 24, Kent State 6 — October 21, 2023
- Current streak: Buffalo, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
A memorable 2024 season for the wrong reasons will conclude Tuesday night in Upstate New York.
The Kent State Golden Flashes (0-11, 0-7 MAC) are the only remaining winless team in the FBS. This is their last shot at a victory until next August. Kent State rides a 20-game losing streak, which is one away from tying the program record set in 1983. The Golden Flashes have dropped 22-straight games against FBS competition and 15-straight against MAC competition. Coincidentally, their last FBS and MAC win was over Buffalo at UB Stadium on Nov. 23, 2022.
Fast-forward to Nov. 23, 2024, and Buffalo once again hosts Kent State in a regular season finale. The Buffalo Bulls (7-4, 5-2 MAC) are the surprise team in the MAC this year, recovering from a 3-9 campaign to produce their first 7-win regular season since 2019. Buffalo operates under the direction of head coach Pete Lembo, who looks to finish with a fourth-straight win to sweeten senior night.
Kent State Golden Flashes outlook
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Kent State has one final opportunity to shed its winless status before the focus shifts to the 2025 season. It’s been a year to forget for the 0-11 Golden Flashes which didn’t even hold their first lead until Week 12.
There are plenty of areas to fix for Kenni Burns and his staff. Offensively, Kent State currently ranks second-to-last in scoring offense (14.5 points per game), last in total offense (236 yards allowed per game), second-to-last in rushing offense (74 yards per game), last in third down conversion rate (19.6 percent), third-to-last in completion rate (46.7 percent), and last in first downs (146). Defensively, Kent State currently ranks last in scoring defense (44.2 points allowed per game), last in total defense (522 yards allowed per game), and last in run defense (266 yards allowed per game).
With all of those statistics factoring into the equation, Kent State has only come within 18 points of an FBS opponent once this year — a 37-35 loss to Ball State in October. The Golden Flashes’ leaned heavily on their strengths that game, and that’s what must happen if they want to end the losing streak in Buffalo.
What are those strengths? The prevailing one lies within the passing attack. The Golden Flashes feature two All-MAC wide receivers in the offense, and frequent utilization of them typically results in better offensive play. Chrishon McCray ranks sixth in receiving yardage (705) and second in receiving touchdowns (9) in the MAC. “Big Play McCray” lives up to his nickname as a big play receiver, picking up 17.6 yards per reception — often a target well beyond the line of scrimmage. His co-partner Luke Floriea also shines down the field. Floriea has 661 yards and six touchdowns on the year, corralling a deep ball for an 80-yard touchdown on the opening drive of the game last week vs. Akron.
The distributor for McCray and Floriea is Tommy Ulatowski, who got back on track last week with his best passing performance since Oct. 12. He completed 12 balls for 229 yards and two touchdowns, increasing his season touchdown to interception ratio to 14-to-8. Ulatowski is the definition of a home run hitting quarterback. Checkdowns aren’t exactly his thing, but he airs it out quite often, averaging over 17 yards per completion. But better pocket presence and improved offensive line play are what the quarterback needs to deliver these home run balls, as he’s taken 3.8 sacks per start this year.
Defensively, Kent State is showing modest improvement in November, despite encountering a litany of injuries. The Golden Flashes held back-to-back opponents under 40 points, limiting the opposing quarterback to a sub-50 percent completion rate in both games. Kent State’s pass defense has taken a leap forward, and increased defensive line pressure is a reason why. Defensive end Stephen Daley is enjoying a late-season breakout, collecting three sacks and a forced fumble over the last two games.
Also stepping up on Kent State’s defense is strong safety Josh Baka, who rose to status as the unit’s leading tackler after generating 35 stops over a three-week span. To further improve the unit, Baka and the secondary could utilize more takeaways. Kent State has only intercepted three passes all year (tied for second-last in FBS) and an early interception or two could help the Golden Flashes play with a lead — something they’re not accustomed to in 2024.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
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Buffalo not only exceeded all expectations by posting a winning season and attaining bowl eligibility — the Bulls still have an outside shot at a MAC Championship Game appearance. It requires four results to happen, so it’s much definitely an outside shot, but the inkling of hope remains alive.
But even if all four cards don’t fall Buffalo’s way, it’s been a sensational year one for Pete Lembo and Co. The Bulls are winners of their last three, taking down Eastern Michigan on the road last week for their largest margin of victory in MAC play.
Offense is one aspect of the team that seemingly progresses each week. At the beginning of the season, Buffalo struggled to score in high volumes. Now that side of the ball is team’s primary strength. Quarterback CJ Ogbonna has developed before our eyes this fall. In his first six FBS starts, the senior never eclipsed 200 passing yards. In his last five starts, he averages 260 passing yards per game — all while amplifying his rushing stats.
Ogbonna throws one of the best deep balls in the MAC, and that attribute allowed his Bulls to come back from 14 down to steal a game from Ball State earlier in November. While the efficiency isn’t always there with a 56.6 season completion rate, Ogbonna is an excellent decision-maker, as exhibited by his 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions — throwing three touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.
Victor Snow and JJ Jenkins are the quarterback’s primary targets promoting the passing attack. Both wide receivers are over 500 yards on the season, and Jenkins is particularly on a roll — accumulating 251 receiving yards over the last two weeks as the deep ball specialist.
Even the run game is taking on an improved form late in the season, and it’s a huge reason Buffalo has scored 37+ points in four of its last five contests. Al-Jay Henderson is picking up 106 rushing yards per game over his last three starts, and the feature tailback produces as a rusher and a receiver, accounting for five total touchdowns over that timespan.
Defensively, Buffalo hasn’t been as stout as it was in the first half of the season, allowing 48 points to Ball State and 30 to Akron. Still, the unit possesses All-American caliber talent which can make it an absolute force. Inside linebacker Shaun Dolac arguably has the best résumé of any linebacker in the country. Although he was snubbed as a Bednarik Award finalist, Dolac is nation’s leading tackler with 146 stops, and he’s tied for third in the nation with five interceptions. Dolac has picked off three passes in the past two weeks, taking a 60-yarder to the house to ice the game vs. Eastern Michigan to become the FBS leader in interception return yards. He also has 15 tackles for loss and four pass breakups, proving his versatility as a do-it-all linebacker.
Buffalo’s defense also features the nation’s second-leading tackler in Red Murdock who has 135 takedowns and 13 tackles for loss. As suggested by the talent in the linebacker corps, the Bulls are more adept at limiting the run than containing the air. Buffalo owns the sixth-to-last ranked passing defense in college football, and preventing Kent State from landing over the top shots should be an emphasis for the safety room — which consists of a former AP All-American talent in Marcus Fuqua.
Prediction
Buffalo is playing its best overall football at the moment, especially on the offensive side of the ball. CJ Ogbonna is a senior who will be honored in the pregame ceremony, but his game continues to grow with each passing week. His deep ball has been tremendous since midweek MACtion started this November, and it should still prevail against the last-ranked defense in the country. Even if it’s an inefficient day from the QB, Buffalo’s rushing attack should pick up the steam versus a Kent State unit plagued by injuries at every level of the defense.
Kent State’s offense is going to move primarily through the air, and primarily through Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea. The Golden Flashes could find some advantages against Buffalo’s passing defense, but ultimately, the linebacking corps of Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock can be overwhelming whether it’s at the line of scrimmage or 10 yards down the field in coverage. The Bulls should be able to handle this one in comfortable fashion, improving to 8-4 while Kent State becomes the first 0-12 team since 2019 Akron.
Prediction: Buffalo 42, Kent State 13