Two teams enter 5-6. One leaves with bowl eligibility an the Michigan MAC Trophy.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 26 at 1:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Waldo Stadium — Kalamazoo, MI
- Spread: Western Michigan (-7)
- Over/under: 56.5
- All-time series: Western Michigan leads, 35-22-2
- Last meeting: Western Michigan 45, Eastern Michigan 21 — October 28, 2023
- Current streak: Western Michigan, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
It all comes down to this.
Bowl eligibility is on the line Saturday at Waldo Stadium in a matchup between the Western Michigan Broncos (5-6, 4-3 MAC) and the Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-6, 2-5 MAC). Not only is that coveted sixth win to clinch the postseason on the line, but a rivalry trophy is additionally at stake. The winner of Saturday’s matchup claims the Michigan MAC Trophy — a traveling prize which is awarded to the MAC team from the state of Michigan which finishes with the best head-to-head record.
If Eastern Michigan wins, the Eagles improve to 2-0 against Michigan MAC teams this year. If Western Michigan wins, all Michigan MAC teams are 1-1 against each other, and the Broncos retain the award after earning it in 2023.
Eastern Michigan rides a four-game skid, while Western Michigan rides a three-game skid, but one of these droughts is certain to end this weekend, while the other team’s season comes to an end.
Eastern Michigan Eagles outlook
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Eastern Michigan started the season on a high note, flying to a 4-1 record with a highlight win over Conference USA frontrunner Jacksonville State. The Eagles were 5-2 as of Oct. 19, looking to contend for their first-ever MAC Championship appearance.
But since that date, nothing has folded in the Eagles’ favor. Eastern Michigan dropped a stunner to Akron with bowl eligibility on the line and never recovered. It lost the following week on a do-or-die two-point attempt vs. Toledo after completing a clock-expiring Hail Mary. The last two weeks, the Eagles watched games vs. Ohio and Buffalo slip away after remaining tight in the first half.
As losers of four-straight, Eastern Michigan needs this one. Excluding the shortened COVID 2020 season, the Eagles have gone bowling five-straight seasons in what is the program’s most prolific stretch since the late 1980s.
Saturday could be the final collegiate game of a three-year MAC starting quarterback. Cole Snyder transferred from Buffalo to Eastern Michigan this season and instantly jump-started the Eagles’ passing attack. With 2,593 passing yards, Snyder is 51 away from posting a top 10 season in program history. He is fresh off a 351-yard, 3-touchdown barrage, but the Eagles need Snyder to revert to his early season turnover prevention ways to optimize the offense. The senior quarterback threw zero interceptions during Eastern Michigan’s 4-1 start but has thrown six across the last three defeats.
Snyder primarily utilizes three targets in the passing game — Terry Lockett Jr., Oran Singleton, and Markus Allen. Lockett and Allen are fresh off spectacular showings against Buffalo, posting 122 and 187 yards, respectively, thanks to their ability to get open on deep shots. Those two average over 14 yards per catch while the team’s receptions leader, Singleton, is more of a short yardage threat on curls and mesh routes.
Although the passing attack is the stronger facet of the offense, Eastern Michigan’s strategy involves plenty of dabbling in the run game — ranking top 25 in the FBS in attempts. It hasn’t exactly been a strong suit this year as the team averages 3.4 yards per carry, although that number is affected by the offensive line surrendering 3.1 sacks per game.
Defensively, the Eagles are quite consistent. It’s not an elite unit suffocating opponents to one or two touchdowns every week, but the group has allowed under 40 points every game this year. The strength of the defense involves generating stops behind the line of scrimmage. Six different Eagles feature at least six tackles for loss on the year, led by middle linebacker James Djonkam and defensive tackle Peyton Price.
The Eagles’ pressure at the first level of defense has forced plenty of fumbles this year, and they rank top 10 in the FBS in recoveries. However, Eastern Michigan needs that turnover production to carry over to the secondary — only intercepting five passes in 11 games.
Western Michigan Broncos outlook
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Western Michigan was the last remaining unbeaten team in MAC play, sitting at 5-3 overall and 4-0 against conference competition when the calendar flipped to November. Now, the Broncos aren’t even guaranteed a bowl appearance.
Western Michigan continues to eye its first bowl game since 2021 after squandering three opportunities in midweek games this month. The Broncos dropped a home game to Northern Illinois, got shredded on the road at Bowling Green, but the most alarming defeat was to their hated rival Central Michigan — falling victim to a 16-14 upset.
The Broncos now must channel all the November frustration into one regular season finale against an in-state rival, hoping to attain bowl eligibility for the first time in Lance Taylor’s tenure.
There is a formula that cleanly separates the difference between a Western Michigan win and Western Michigan loss in 2024. When the Broncos score 30 points, they’re 5-0. When they fail to reach 30, they’re 0-6. Thus, Western Michigan’s result is primarily dictated by what happens on the offensive side of the ball. The team has proven to thrive in shootouts, winning multiple contests when allowing 40+, but if the Broncos aren’t finding the end zone, they’re not going to prevail in a defensive slugfest.
Western Michigan’s offense has been under the direction of quarterback Hayden Wolff for all 11 games this year. During the team’s four-game win streak in October, Wolff was at his best, totaling 11 touchdown passes and one interception on a 73.6 completion rate. In November, Wolff is completing 62.2 percent of attempts with one touchdown and four interceptions. The sixth-year senior, who will be apart of the pregame senior day festivities, looks to revert to his October level of play because when his efficiency is on point, he’s one of the sharpest quarterbacks in the MAC.
But where the Broncos excel most offensively is running the ball, checking in as one of 29 programs to average 5.1 yards per carry or better on the ground. Western Michigan utilizes an effective trio of backs — Jaden Nixon, Jalen Buckley, and Zahri Abdus-Salaam — to gain an edge in the run game, and all three have at least 400 rushing yards on a 5.0+ average. Nixon is typically the lead back with five 100-yard showings in 2024, but he’s been limited to 25 yards on 14 handoffs the past two games. If the Broncos can’t get him going early, they’ll look to add creativity to the run game, which includes inserting quarterback Broc Lowry in for zone reads and QB draws.
It’s been a roller coaster year defensively for Western Michigan. The Broncos have their moments, but they are listed at 114th in scoring defense and 110th in total defense. Strong safety Tate Hallock is the key playmaker Eastern Michigan must keep tabs on when possessing the ball as Hallock is the recipient of four interceptions this year, in addition to ranking second on the team in tackles with 76.
Prediction
The expectation for this game is to be a highly-competitive one with a decent amount of points, as Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan both feature stronger offenses than defenses this year.
Western Michigan’s primary weapon is the run game while Eastern Michigan’s is through the air, but both the Broncos and Eagles exhibit enough balance to remain lethal enough in the other. Eastern Michigan has been quite susceptible to allowing the deep ball lately, and that could get Hayden Wolff back on track this weekend. Wolff and the Western Michigan seniors also get the luxury of homefield advantage on their commemorative day, and the team is 3-1 at Waldo Stadium, averaging 43.3 points per game there. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan is 2-3 away from The Factory and its defense hasn’t traveled as well.
Broncos attain bowl eligibility and retain the Michigan MAC Trophy.
Prediction: Western Michigan 34, Eastern Michigan 26