Buffalo looked sharp in Week 1. But the level of competition couldn’t be any more different in Week 2.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 7 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: SEC+/ESPN+
- Location: Faurot Field — Columbia, MO
- Spread: Missouri (-34.5)
- Over/under: 51.5
- All-time series: Missouri leads, 1-0
- Last meeting: Missouri 42, Buffalo 21 — September 20, 2008
- Current streak: Missouri, 1 (2008)
Setting the scene
The Pete Lembo era is off and running at Buffalo. After two consecutive years of being stunned by FCS competition in September, the Bulls exorcised those demons with a convincing 30-13 wire-to-wire victory over Lafayette to kick off the 2024 season.
While Buffalo looked sharp Thursday night, there couldn’t be a greater discrepancy in competition from Week 1 to Week 2. The Bulls head west to Farout Field, battling a Missouri Tigers squad that finished No. 8 in the country. Missouri currently holds a similar place in the AP Poll at No. 9, returning a heap of talent that dominated an FCS opponent 51-0, also last Thursday night.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
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Buffalo already etched a tally in the win column before the dawn of September, which is a marked improvement over the past two seasons which were characterized by 0-3 starts. The Bulls handled Lafayette like an FBS team should handle FCS competition, roughly doubling them up in yardage and controlling the line of scrimmage.
One of the bigger question marks headed into the competition was the quarterback situation. Buffalo named CJ Ogbonna the starter over Old Dominion Jack Shields, the only quarterback who entered the season with previous starting experience. Although Ogbonna didn’t record any starts in 2023, he logged plenty of snaps under the previous coaching regime, primarily utilized just for running plays.
He tested his arm more times Thursday than he did the entire 2023 season, completing 14-of-24 attempts for a Buffalo career-high 195 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception. Ogbonna surprisingly wasn’t tasked with much as a runner, but a backfield led by Jacqez Barskdale produced 208 yards in the three-score victory.
Although this is Buffalo’s first action vs. Missouri since 2008, it’s not Ogbonna’s first crack at the Tigers. He started against them in 2021 as a member of FCS program Southeast Missouri, rushing for 96 yards and adding 53 through the air on 7-of-14 passing. Saturday marks just his second start for Buffalo, and he hopes to produce similar rushing numbers to open the offense and give the heavy underdogs a chance in SEC country.
Barksdale, Al-Jay Henderson, and Lamar Sperling make up a reloaded backfield, but running on Missouri isn’t going to be an easy task. The Tigers finished 32nd in run defense a year ago holding opponents to 3.8 yards per attempt, and they handled FCS opponent Murray State without breaking a sweat, limiting it to 58 rushing yards on 35 tries.
Generating production through the air won’t be much easier, but it will be necessary Saturday against the only team in the country that allowed fewer than 100 total yards in Week 1. Buffalo lost its top five receiving leaders from 2023, so a new crop of talent is being featured in the passing attack. Nik McMillan looks primed to become a No. 1 option after 76 yards on five receptions in the opener, while Boston College transfer Taji Johnson and Victor Snow are the supporting receivers hoping to find space in the Missouri secondary.
Defensively, Buffalo looked poised when defending the run against Lafayette, limiting the undermatched opponent 1.5 yards per carry. One of the most promising components of the defense was transfer defensive end Kobe Stewart who notched two sacks in the victory. Another welcome sight was the production of inside linebacker Shaun Dolac. Two years ago, he led the FBS in solo tackles but missed the majority of 2023 due to injury. In a triumphant return, Dolac collected 11 stops, two tackles for loss, and an interception, and he’ll be tasked with limiting Missouri’s one-two punch in the backfield Saturday.
On the back end, Buffalo is led by former AP All-American Marcus Fuqua. College football’s interceptions leader in 2022, the free safety remains an important fixture on defense even without the ball in his hands. He tallied seven tackles and a tackle for loss in the opener, but forcing turnovers is going to be essential to have a chance in a difficult SEC environment.
Missouri Tigers outlook
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It’s been a long time since Missouri entered a season with such lofty expectations. It’s also been a long time since Missouri battled Buffalo in non-conference play.
In fact, the answer to both of those inquiries is 16 years. This year’s Tigers received their highest preseason ranking (No. 11) since they opened at No. 8 in 2008 — the same year of their last meeting with Buffalo.
Missouri didn’t exactly play the steepest of competition in Murray State in Week 1, but the Tigers absolutely looked the part in a commanding 51-0 shutout — scoring three touchdowns in less than 5:30 of clock time to initiate the season. Plenty of FBS teams were pitted against FCS opponents in Week 1, but none dominated as thoroughly defensively as Missouri. The Tigers limited Murray State to 85 yards of total offense (27 passing and 58 rushing), ranking No. 1 in the nation by 21 yards of separation over the next best defense.
Starting with the defensive side of the ball, this unit entered the season with somewhat of a question mark hovering above its head as the Tigers watched five defensive players warrant NFL Draft selections last April, including three in the first three rounds. But Missouri worked the portal exceptionally well and that was on full display Thursday night. Florida transfer Chris McClellan logged a sack as one of the team’s new defensive tackles, and Clemson transfer Toriano Pride recorded a first quarter pick-six, demonstrating potential to be the unit’s new No. 1 corner.
Yes, there are still returning pieces essential to the Mizzou’s 2023 success. Edge rusher Johnny Walker Jr. remains a pertinent fixture in the defense after logging 5.0 sacks and 9.5 tackles a year ago, while free safety Joseph Charleston is one of the more reliable hitters as the team’s returning leader in the tackles department. But one thing Missouri’s defense didn’t do particularly well in 2023 was force interceptions, acquiring just nine in 13 contests. They look to force Buffalo’s new-look passing game into a slew of uncomfortable situations, adding to the turnover output after Pride’s interception last week.
On the offensive side of things, the Tigers are loaded. Brady Cook broke out as the SEC’s fourth-leading passer during Mizzou’s 11-2 campaign, demonstrating decent efficiency with a 66.1 completion percentage and 21 touchdowns to six interceptions. Cook also isn’t too shabby of a runner, finishing second on the team with 319 yards a year ago, but he doesn’t need to be considering the depth the team totes at running back.
Missouri struck gold in the transfer portal at the running back position, and it also helped support the run game by landing SMU offensive tackle Marcus Bryant and Oklahoma guard Cayden Green to bolster the left side of the line. The Tigers brought in Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll who finished 10th nationally in rushing in 2023, and Carroll shined with 54 yards from scrimmage on just eight touches in the opener. Appalachian State transfer Nate Noel added 68 yards from scrimmage, and Noel boasts quite the résumé himself too — starting the 2023 season with five consecutive 100-yard games and surpassing the 170 mark multiple times during a 5-year collegiate career.
But it would be remiss to discuss Missouri’s offense without mentioning wide receiver Luther Burden III who belongs in the upper echelon of all college football players in 2024. Burden opened his junior season with a touchdown on his first drive, adding to an impressive Mizzou stint which featured 1,197 yards last fall. Buffalo can’t just key on Burden though as Theo Wease Jr., Mookie Cooper, and Marquis Johnson — Missouri’s second, third, and fourth leading receivers from 2023 — all return to the rotation to form one of the best corps in the FBS.
Prediction
Missouri nearly fell victim to a shocking Week 2 upset last September, escaping 23-19 over a Middle Tennessee team which eventually wound up 4-8. But the Tigers exponentially improved as they learned how to win throughout last season, and that same team that stood less than 50 yards away from losing to the Blue Raiders was not the same one defeated Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
The Tigers should be substantially more prepared for their Week 2 matchup this time around considering they’ve already unearthed the talents of Brady Cook and Luther Burden, and the many talented surrounding skill position players. Missouri’s defense also might be too much to handle for a Buffalo team still figuring out its way in the passing game.
Buffalo earned an important Week 1 victory to kick off the Pete Lembo era but battling a top 10 opponent while working out the kinks of a rebuild won’t be simple, and it will show in a lopsided result.
Prediction: Missouri 41, Buffalo 10