How does Kent State recover from a 71-0 defeat in another top 10 environment?
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 21 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: Big Ten Network
- Location: Beaver Stadium — University Park, PA
- Spread: Penn State (-49)
- Over/under: 55.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 60-60-7
- Last meeting: Penn State 63, Kent State 10 — September 15, 2018
- Current streak: Penn State, 6 (1965-18)
Setting the scene
Last Saturday, Kent State had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day.
The Golden Flashes trailed 65-0 to No. 7 Tennessee — at halftime. Kent State had -31 yards after the first quarter while the Volunteers were recovering their own onside kicks in an all-out evisceration. Kent State ultimately fell 71-0, encountering the largest margin of defeat for any FBS team this year. It didn’t even allow a sack or commit a turnover. Tennessee simply dominated, scoring on every possession until victory formation.
How do you respond to such a lopsided finish? You flush it and prepare for the next opponent.
However, Kent State’s next opponent is also in the AP Top 10. The Golden Flashes embark on another road trip to No. 10 Penn State, hoping to show signs of progress as they hunt for their first FBS win since 2022. On the flip side, Penn State aims to quickly put away an opponent after dealing with a 60-minute scare from its last matchup vs. Bowling Green.
Kent State Golden Flashes outlook
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Kent State (0-3, 0-0 MAC) was on the wrong side of the history books in its last outing. Tennessee became the only team to drop 65 points in a single half on FBS competition in the last decade. At halftime, the Volunteers offered to reduce second half or utilize a running clock, but Kent State head coach Kenni Burns and his captains declined it, citing that shying away from competition conflicts program values.
Although the Volunteer backups were in, Kent State showed much improvement in the final two quarters, only allowing six points to wrap up a 71-0 thrashing. That’s the largest margin of defeat by an FBS team this year, but it’s not even the Golden Flashes’ most concerning loss to date. That happened two weeks ago against St. Francis (PA) of the FCS when Kent State stumbled to a 17-0 deficit and couldn’t rally in time, falling 23-17 in a stunning defeat.
The Golden Flashes are winless in yet another challenging territory, and they also aren’t quite healthy. There are plenty of day-to-day injuries impacting the team, and Burns is hoping for significant recovery by the dawn of MAC play on Sept. 28. Free safety Alex Branch will likely miss Saturday with a shoulder injury, and Kent State’s running back room is nicked up. The group lost starter Gavin Garcia to a season-ending injury in fall camp. Then last week, Ky Thomas and Curtis Douglas both went down vs. Tennessee, making them questionable for the Penn State game.
Thus, Kent State is playing a bevy of true freshmen and redshirt freshmen at the moment, hoping to find emerging faces to be the future stars of this rebuilding program. Redshirt freshman Tevin Tucker, who stepped in for the injured Branch, totaled seven tackles in his first substantial action to date while true freshman Cade Wolford earned some reps in the ground game as a reliever for a shorthanded running back room. Kent State looks for further experimentation in the run game as it currently ranks third-to-last rushing yards with 54 per game on a 1.7 average.
Injuries aside, there’s plenty of youth to go around on this Kent State team. The Golden Flashes started three true freshmen on the offensive side of the ball in center Elijah Williams, who was temporarily moved to guard in favor of veteran backup Tony Georges due to the hostility and noise of the Neyland Stadium environment. Jay Jay Etheridge and Dashawn Martin both got starting nods at receiver on this young unit.
With an 0-3 record, several injuries, and youth the coaching staff wants to experiment with, changes are frequent in the Kent State depth chart. But one constant remains starting quarterback Devin Kargman who won the job in fall camp. Kargman has 432 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions on a 55.6 completion rate this season. His rushing total still lies in the negative as he five sacks in the opener at Pittsburgh. The good news for Kent State is that it has already shown marked improvement in that facet of the game, yielding one collective sack in the last two matchups.
There appears to be a greater semblance of verticality in the passing game this year as Kargman has increased comfort with a reliable set of receivers. Kent State churned out two All-MAC selections at the position last season in Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea. Floriea is currently fourth in the MAC with 209 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, consistently beating Pitt’s coverage in Week 1. “Big Play” McCray has 121 yards in his follow-up act to a breakout 2022, and he’ll look to find openings in Penn State’s coverage as he seeks his third career 100-yard showing.
Kent State was last in scoring offense in 2023, but so far in 2024, it’s 127th in the nation. However, the Golden Flashes do rank last in one major metric and that’s scoring defense, allowing 49.7 points per game. Those results are skewed early on due to the Tennessee game, but plenty of defensive issues already surfaced in a 55-24 loss at Pitt. Kent State is last in the country in run defense, and it takes on the arduous task of achieving more stops at the line of scrimmage against a potent Penn State run game.
There is promise in the defensive front. Burns believes this could be the best defensive line in the MAC, headlined by the defensive end duo of Stephen Daley (1.0 sacks, 3.0 tackles for loss, one fumble recovery) and Kameron Olds (3.0 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss) as well as defensive tackle Oliver Billotte. The linebacking corps features an emerging star in Rocco Nicholl, who leads the team with 24 tackles, and veteran Khalib Johns, who checks in with 20 tackles — thriving with a full slate of health after back-to-back injury-riddled campaigns.
Penn State Nittany Lions outlook
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Penn State (2-0, 0-0 Big Ten) received an early bye week, and now the Nittany Lions prepare to face their second MAC opponent of the season. The first one proved to be quite a challenge in Happy Valley as Bowling Green pushed Penn State to the wire, as late turnovers allowed the Nittany Lions to escape in a 34-27 finish. Now, the Nittany Lions host Kent State hoping for much more separation in the scoreboard this time around.
After struggling offensively against ranked competition in 2023, Penn State switched things up at coordinator, hiring Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas. Kotelnicki has likened his scheme to a Dairy Queen blizzard, as the offense is still composed of the vanilla ice cream pro-style offense Penn State previously employed, but he just mixed in the candy — which includes frequent pre-snap motions and shifts, late adjustments, and creative scheming to manufacture openings for his receivers.
Penn State doesn’t present the hyper-speed offense previous Kent State opponents Pitt and Tennessee utilized, but Kotelnicki aims to stretch defenses to the limit of discomfort before the snap even occurs. Overall, it creates a more explosive offense for the Nittany Lions which manufactured four 40+ yard plays against West Virginia and eight 20+ yard plays against Bowling Green.
The Nittany Lions have the personnel to allow this unique offense to succeed. Junior quarterback Drew Allar has conspicuously improved his verticality in the passing game, skyrocketing his average of 6.8 yards per attempt in 2023 to 11.4 yards per attempt through two games this fall. His completion rate is up five percentage points, and he’s demonstrated increased comfort in the run game which was evidenced in the opener at West Virginia. Allar hasn’t attempted more than 20 passes yet, and although Penn State will utilize his arm for the first few scripted drives, it’s likely that trend persists if the Nittany Lions put this game to bed by halftime.
Penn State relies heavily on the run game which is led by the dynamic duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen for the third-straight year. The two combine for three 100-yard outings in the first two games, and Singleton has been quite the home run hitter with three 40-yard breakaway runs already. Allen is a reliable second fiddle who should see plenty of action, but Singleton’s explosiveness can be game-changing as the junior averages 9.0 yards per carry and operates as a frequent threat in the passing game.
The talent and depth in the wide receiver room was one of the biggest questions in State College entering the season. In Week 1, it appeared the Nittany Lions found their guy. Trey Wallace proved to be a lethal weapon with a 5-reception, 117-yard, 2-touchdown performance in the first half of the season to emerge as the likely No. 1 option. But in Penn State’s last six quarters of action, only four receptions have been recorded by wide receivers. Tight end Tyler Warren is the team leader with 11 receptions and 176 yards, but the Nittany Lions hope to find additional support from the wide receivers which include junior Omari Evans and Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming.
The identity of most James Franklin Penn State teams lies within the defense. The Nittany Lions are on a three-year streak of exhibiting top 10 scoring defenses, and while the unit looked on pace for that honor again after the West Virginia game, the group was certainly tested by Bowling Green in Week 2. The Falcons threw for 254 yards and racked up 4.7 yards per carry in the run game, consistently moving the sticks with a 7-of-14 showing on third down. Penn State couldn’t get much pressure on the quarterback, allowing Bowling Green to remain in the contest through the final seconds of action.
Thus, everything starts with the Nittany Lion pass rush. Future NFL Draft pick Abdul Carter will look to do his best Micah Parsons impression as Penn State’s chief edge rusher in a No. 11 uniform. After a quiet opener, the two-time All-Big Ten selection burst onto the scene at Bowling Green with seven tackles, one tackle for loss, and a pass breakup. He still awaits his first sack of the season and Kent State can’t afford to leave him unblocked or assigned to running backs in pass protection in this difficult matchup.
Elsewhere on the defense, the Nittany Lions present one of the more dangerous safety rooms in the sport. Jaylen Reed emerged on the scene as a starter last year and he’s taking another stride in 2024 as the unit’s leading tackler with 19 stops and two pass breakups so far. Strong safety Kevin Winston Jr. is another versatile force on the back end, totaling 13 tackles and a forced fumble during Penn State’s 2-0 start.
Prediction
Penn State is renowned for covering the spread, particularly in non-conference play. The Nittany Lions fared 9-3 against the spread in each of the past two seasons, notably covering as 40+ point favorites on two occasions in 2023.
Vegas provides 49 points of separation between these teams, which means a Kent State win signifies the greatest upset in college football history. Whether the Nittany Lions cover such a lofty spread isn’t easy to guess due to the unpredictable nature of blowouts in the second half. Still, Penn State is destined for a dominant win Saturday given its many advantages — with a youthful Kent State offensive line pitted against Abdul Carter and an intimidating defensive front serving as the most notable. Additionally, Penn State sends out a stellar duo in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen to take on the nation’s worst run defense which heavily favors the home team in Happy Valley.
Penn State makes quick work and pushes Kent State to 0-4, but unlike last week, Kent State finds the end zone once in the fourth quarter, leaving with a slightly better feeling than the one it marinated in last Saturday in Knoxville.
Prediction: Penn State 52, Kent State 7