Notre Dame is 0-1 vs. the MAC this year. Miami (OH) hopes to make it 0-2.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 21 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: NBC/Peacock
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium — South Bend, IN
- Spread: Cincinnati (-28)
- Over/under: 43.5
- All-time series: Notre Dame leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: Notre Dame 52, Miami (OH) 17 — September 30, 2017
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 1 (1909-17)
Setting the scene
It’s Notre Dame vs. a MAC team. We’ve seen this movie before.
In fact, we saw it two weeks ago when Northern Illinois stormed into South Bend and escaped with a 16-14 victory that drew plenty of buzz around the college football universe. Northern Illinois’ statement win catapulted the Huskies into the rankings, becoming the earliest MAC team to receive a numeral next to its name in the AP Poll since 2002 Marshall.
Now, the reigning MAC champions aim to do the same. Miami (OH) is still winless, but the RedHawks only played two games against somewhat challenging competition. They dropped close contests to Northwestern and Cincinnati as the offense struggled to capitalize in clutch situations when going for the tying touchdown in each defeat.
Head coach Chuck Martin, who coached at Notre Dame from 2010-13 before accepting the job with the RedHawks, hopes his team regroups and collects a signature win before the quest for a second MAC championship begins.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
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Miami (OH) (0-2, 0-0 MAC) is one of 12 remaining winless programs in the FBS. The RedHawks were subject to an early bye week and they haven’t played FCS competition yet, starting with a challenging slate of Northwestern and Cincinnati that ramps up in difficulty this week with Notre Dame.
The RedHawks are one defeat away from matching their loss total from last season, but they haven’t been favored in a single game yet. Still, this team possesses championship caliber pedigree. They’re coming off their second MAC title in five years under head coach Chuck Martin, and they return a myriad of players from that successful 11-win 2023 team.
One of those players is sixth-year starting quarterback Brett Gabbert who is coming off his fourth-highest passing total in a long college career. Gabbert diced apart the Cincinnati secondary in Week 3 with his deep ball, connecting on five 35+ yard passes in the rivalry game. Each of those throws had significant air under it, and his receivers did an excellent job fighting for 50-50 balls, particularly Cade McDonald and Reggie Virgil.
McDonald is emerging as the No. 1 threat this year, and his performance through three games screams All-MAC potential. He’s second in the conference in receiving yards with 240 through two games, and he’s been an impressive downfield threat averaging 15.0 yards per catch. Virgil is also thriving as a breakout talent in the offense. After just two catches across the last two seasons, the 6’4” junior is on the board with six receptions for 109 yards this year — and he’s perfectly built to win jump balls from a strength and size perspective.
Miami’s passing attack is thriving, so why does the offense only have two touchdowns and 22 total points through two games? The run game is not coming naturally at all. This was the RedHawks’ offensive specialty during their 2023 MAC title run, but in 2024, they rank last in the country with 32 yards per game on a 1.4 average.
Nobody finished the Cincinnati game with more than 14 rushing yards, and the highest individual output by any RedHawk rusher this year is power back Jordan Brunson’s 33 yards vs. Northwestern. They haven’t particularly established who the No. 1 option is yet, so expect Miami to attack with a stable of backs and try to find one that’s beneficial for each matchup. Additionally, the run game can improve with better push at the line of scrimmage.
Despite toting one of college football’s most veteran offensive lines, the battles in the trenches haven’t exactly favored the RedHawks thus far. Miami allowed seven aggregate sacks to Northwestern and Cincinnati, and offensive line assertiveness is key to pulling off the upset, as Northern Illinois eloquently demonstrated two weeks ago.
Defense is where the identity of this RedHawk team lies, and that’s what won them a MAC championship nine months ago. Nobody has been able to establish a reliable passing game on Miami this year, yielding just 182 aerial yards per contest. Miami does an excellent job on the back end of preventing deep shots in the passing game, causing teams to trickle down the field in a more steady fashion. Cornerback Raion Strader is the name to watch in the secondary. He shined as a true freshman last season, and he’s only getting better as a sophomore with three pass breakups and seven tackles thus far.
But where Miami is most dangerously defensively is in the linebacking corps. The RedHawks send out the reigning MAC Defensive Player of the Year in Matt Salopek who is a tackle machine with three-straight campaigns exceeding 110 stops. Salopek is already averaging 9.5 per game this year, and Notre Dame’s defenders are certain to run into him on a regular basis. Elsewhere in the linebacking corps reside inside backer Ty Wise, who totaled 8.0 sacks in 2023. Miami hasn’t jump-started its pass rush yet, so it will be up to Wise and defensive end Brian Ugwu to generate routine pressure and force Notre Dame into tough situations like NIU successfully did.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish outlook
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Notre Dame (2-1, Independent) is ranked No. 17 in the country and coming off a 66-7 thrashing of Purdue. The Fighting Irish also stormed into a hostile environment of Kyle Field and knocked off Texas A&M by 10 points. But sandwiched in between those impressive data points is a loss to a MAC team, as Northern Illinois took over South Bend and won 16-14 thanks to a pair of blocked field goals.
The Fighting Irish already maturely rebounded from the NIU loss by eviscerating Purdue by nearly 60 points. But now another MAC team awaits, and it’s the reigning conference champions. The first order of business for the Fighting Irish involves winning the battle of trenches — something they were not able to do two weeks ago when the Huskies were in town.
Although Notre Dame seemed to have righted those shortcomings against Purdue, not everything ended up well for the Fighting Irish after the lopsided win. They lost two starting linemen — center Ashton Craig with a season-ending knee injury and right guard Billy Scrauth with an ankle injury that is expected to keep him sidelined for several weeks. Combine that with starting left tackle Charles Jagusah, who suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp, and the Fighting Irish are down 60 percent of their first team o-line.
The injuries persisted to the defensive line as well as defensive end Jordan Botelho also saw his season end prematurely due to a knee injury after attaining 12 tackles and a sack through three games. Now, Notre Dame must rely on its depth on both sides of the line as Jagusah, Craig, and Botelho aren’t suiting up in blue and gold again this season. On the offensive line, true freshman left tackle Anthonie Knapp is a name to watch, pitted against a veteran Miami front in a good litmus test of the value of experience. On the defensive line, Duke transfer RJ Oben is a player which must step up in the pass rush after producing 14 total sacks with the Blue Devils from 2021-23.
Speaking of Duke transfers, Notre Dame is led by one at quarterback in Riley Leonard. After struggling in the pass and run game vs. Northern Illinois, Leonard witnessed a tremendous bounce-back in Week 3, rushing for 100 yards and three touchdowns in the first half alone while efficiently completing 11-of-16 attempts for 112 yards. Notre Dame’s offense only scored two touchdowns in each of its first two outings, but Saturday at Purdue showcased a different side of Mike Denbrock’s offense with explosive rushing plays running rampant.
Running back Jeremiyah Love also hit the 100-yard threshold and only needed 10 carries to do it. Love has been the most consistent force in the offense this year, averaging at least 6.5 yards per attempt in all three games and scoring a touchdown each time. However, Love hasn’t been fed more than 14 handoffs in a single game yet, and in the event this one is close, relying on his mobility to power through in clutch situations could help avoid another Northern Illinois situation — where the Fighting Irish passed on seven of their 10 snaps while ahead in the second half.
Defensively, Notre Dame is having an exceptional season. Nobody has scored more than 16 points on the Fighting Irish this year, and Marcus Freeman’s team has been especially sound against the passing game. Purdue only managed 124 passing yards on 11 completions and 24 attempts against a unit which currently ranks 25th in fewest passing yards allowed.
The Fighting Irish shored up their run defense against the Boilermakers too, limiting them to 38 yards on 25 attempts, although the run defense didn’t produce the same results against Northern Illinois. Outside linebacker Jack Kiser has been the most consistent player against the run, racking up a team-high 17 tackles including 11 solo stops.
When it comes to shining in the secondary, free safety Xavier Watts is as lethal as they come in the FBS. Watts was the 2023 recipient of the Bronko Nagurski Trophy for the nation’s best defensive player, earning the award after attaining an FBS-best seven interceptions. The unanimous All-American already has one this year, and he’ll look to feast on a Miami offense which is tossing 1.5 picks per game so far.
Prediction
The MAC already beat Notre Dame, but what Northern Illinois did was unleash a monster in Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish seemingly fixed all their offensive woes vs. Purdue and stepped up their play on the defensive side for a dominant 66-7 finish.
Yes, Notre Dame is going through serious injury problems but the Fighting Irish still have enough talent and weapons to maintain their winning ways going forward. Riley Leonard’s dual-threat abilities could cause some problems for a Miami defense which was tested by Northwestern mobile quarterback Mike Wright in the opener. Also the Notre Dame running back room led by Jeremiyah Love matches up well against a 109th ranked Miami run defense allowing 5.6 yards per game.
If Miami wants to win this one, the RedHawks need to drain clock, limit the number of possessions, and keep the score below the 20s, similar to how Notre Dame did. Additionally, stacking the box to prevent the run and forcing Riley Leonard to pass on second and third downs could be an efficient strategy.
Although Miami proved its merit in the passing game last week, Notre Dame is more well-rounded. The Fighting Irish win convincingly through its run game and relentless defense.
Prediction: Notre Dame 35, Miami (OH) 13