Toledo is coming off a huge win in SEC country. With Caden Veltkamp on the other side, does this scream “trap game?”
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 21 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium — Bowling Green, KY
- Spread: Toledo (-2.5)
- Over/under: 58.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024 belonged to the Toledo Rockets.
Toledo earned Cheez-It National Team of the Week honors by the Football Writers Association of America, taking the college football world by storm for what transpired Saturday night in Starkville, MS.
The Rockets didn’t just storm into SEC country and eke out a win over Mississippi State. They ransacked the entire town, dominating the hapless Bulldogs in 41-17 fashion, becoming the first MAC team to score 40 on an SEC program and registering the largest MAC over SEC margin of victory since 1971.
But Toledo hasn’t even cleared its entire non-conference slate yet. A challenge awaits Saturday as the Rockets remain on the road at Western Kentucky, which is fresh off two dominant victories. It’s the first-ever meeting between the Rockets and Hilltoppers in a showcase under the lights in Bowling Green, KY.
Toledo Rockets outlook
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Toledo (3-0, 0-0 MAC) is fresh off a massive statement victory, beating the brakes off Mississippi State in a 24-point triumph. The Rockets established two-way dominance from the start in that one, scoring touchdowns on three of their first four series, while holding Mississippi State to negative yardage in the first quarter.
Oftentimes, double-digit underdogs sneak out wins or benefit from a lopsided turnover battle or special teams success. That wasn’t the case in Starkville. Toledo’s offense was a fine-tuned machine led by quarterback Tucker Gleason. He completed 23-of-28 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.
Watching Gleason, you couldn’t tell it’s his first season as the primary starter, taking the reins from 2023 MAC MVP Dequan Finn. Gleason has tossed three touchdown passes in all three outings, and he still doesn’t have an interception. While he’s no Lamar Jackson, Gleason also has a knack for extending plays with his legs, providing an extra element to Toledo’s offense that opponents must be wary of.
The most impressive thing about Toledo’s offense is the line is allowing Gleason to succeed. This was the biggest question mark headed into the year as the Rockets replaced all five linemen, promoting three reserves and taking on two transfers to refurbish the starting unit. So far, it’s been excellent. Gleason has only taken one sack and the run game — although not at 2023 levels — is contributing enough for the offense to average 42.7 points per game.
Toledo featured a top 10 rusher a year ago in Peny Boone, who transferred to UCF, but the run game operates without a defined leader in 2024. Instead, it’s a running back by committee approach mixing the talents of Willie Shaw III, Jacquez Stuart, and Connor Walendzak, who each have between 19 and 31 carries thus far. The Rockets do their most damage at the skill positions with their receivers though, led by the veteran pairing of Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III.
Vandeross features 14 receptions, 225 yards, and three touchdowns on his season stat-line, while Newton nearly matches with 11 receptions, 200 yards, and four touchdowns. Both Florida natives are exceptional playmakers, gaining impressive separation against defensive backs on a variety of routes. But those aren’t Gleason’s only options, as seventh-year senior tight end Anthony Torres is an established red zone threat with two touchdown receptions on the year.
The Rocket defense continues to suffocate opponents in the run game, holding teams to 105 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry. The ability to stuff the run forced Mississippi State into a slow start, and the Bulldogs managed just 66 rushing yards in the beatdown. Factoring into that total is Toledo’s impressive pass rush which produced five sacks in each of the last two outings. The Rockets exhibit the sixth-most sacks in the country, and it’s been a concerted effort with 13 different players attaining a share of a sack and nobody posting more than 1.5.
Toledo may have lost a first round talent to the NFL last offseason in cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, but the secondary remains loaded with potential. Safeties Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and Maxen Hook have impressed this season as the team leaders in tackles with 31 and 23, and as a whole, the team has broken up 14 passes. In a matchup against a pass-happy WKU, the secondary becomes essential and cornerbacks Avery Smith and Jadarrius Perkins will have the toughest tasks.
WKU Hilltoppers outlook
Will McLelland-Imagn Images
Western Kentucky (2-1, 1-0 CUSA) faced as difficult of a start to the season as anybody. The Hilltoppers were the first victim of post-Nick Saban Alabama, falling 63-0 in a lopsided blowout to the Crimson Tide. But that’s a game you throw in the rearview and move forward, and Tyson Helton’s squad did just that.
They shut out an FCS opponent Eastern Kentucky 31-0 and then dominated conference rival Middle Tennessee 49-21 in the 100 Miles of Hate series. That Middle Tennessee game produced interesting results, especially for one individual slated to make his first career start this Saturday.
How many quarterbacks in college football history have multiple 380-yard and multiple 5-touchdown games before making their first start? The answer probably isn’t much higher than one, and that one is WKU quarterback Caden Veltkamp. Veltkamp, with one foot already in the transfer portal was inserted into the Famous Toastery Bowl last December after the Hilltoppers stumbled to a 28-0 deficit. His life forever changed over the next 3.5 hours, as he delivered 383 yards and five touchdowns in a miraculous comeback to upend Old Dominion in overtime.
Veltkamp withdrew from the portal and remained a Hilltopper, but he didn’t win the starting job in camp, as LSU, Auburn, and Texas State transfer TJ Finley made his way to campus. Finley suffered an injury on the first drive of last week’s Middle Tennessee game, and Veltkamp replayed the same movie all of WKU faithful enjoyed last December. He finished an efficient 27-of-30 with 398 passing yards and five touchdowns in a four-touchdown rout, while accounting for a sixth touchdown as a rusher. And he still hasn’t made his first start, but that changes Saturday against a feisty Toledo defense.
WKU runs a pass-happy offense. The Hilltoppers are 15th in the country in attempts, 18th in yards, and they’re the model of efficiency, connecting on 69 percent of passes. They use a litany of screens to essentially substitute for the run game, where they rank 16th-to-last in the FBS in rushes per game.
The Hilltoppers showcase a trio of talented receivers in Kisean Johnson, Easton Messer, and Elijah Young, who all own at least 12 receptions and 100 receiving yards on an early season résumé. Messer and Young are returning members of the roster, while Johnson was brought into the program this offseason from Alabama State of the FCS. The transition has been seamless for him, totaling 263 yards thus far including 129 and a pair of touchdowns as Veltkamp’s top option vs. Middle Tennessee.
WKU’s defensive stats are quite skewed. The Hilltoppers haven’t faced multiple opponents in their weight class, operating on both sides of a shutout in their first two weeks of action. Last week was the best sample data point observed thus far, and WKU was outstanding at limiting the run game, holding Middle Tennessee to 58 yards on 23 rushes. The pass defense was a different story as the Blue Raiders accumulated 456 yards on a 24-of-31 showing. The Hilltoppers repeatedly stepped up on fourth down to maintain the separation, but Middle Tennessee — just like Alabama in Week 1 — proved that the secondary isn’t a finished product quite yet.
One name to watch in the WKU defense is cornerback Upton Stout who has been suiting up for the program since 2022. Stout sniffs out screens very well, totaling four tackles for loss to date this season. He’s shown good coverage skills over the years too, picking off four passes in 2022 and deflecting eight in 2023.
Prediction
The formula for a trap game is present for Toledo. The Rockets are on the road as a follow-up act to a statement victory in SEC country.
WKU is playing its best football at the moment and might have unlocked something with Caden Veltkamp stepping in at quarterback. The Hilltoppers’ passing attack is a certifiable threat, especially to a Toledo defense replacing both cornerbacks including an All-American in Quinyon Mitchell.
However, the Rockets can apply ample pressure with their defensive front, making things tougher on Veltkamp this week. The Hilltoppers don’t feature too much of a run game, and if Toledo dials up enough pressure without stacking the box, things could go well for the Rockets.
This one has the makings of a close finish, and Tucker Gleason and a well-balanced offense can take Toledo to the finish line in Bowling Green, KY.
Prediction: Toledo 31, WKU 28