Buffalo is coming off its second-ranked win in program history with UConn looming on the schedule.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS Sports Network
- Location: Pratt & Whitney Stadium — East Hartford, CT
- Spread: Connecticut (-5.5)
- Over/under: 46.5
- All-time series: Connecticut leads, 16-5
- Last meeting: Buffalo 41, Connecticut 12 — September 28, 2013
- Current streak: Buffalo, 1 (2013)
Setting the scene
It’s been 11 years since the northeastern non-conference met on a football field.
Buffalo and UConn played quite regularly from 1995-2013, settling things 15 times during that 19-season span — most notably in the now-defunct International Bowl to conclude the 2008 season.
Both the Bulls and Huskies enter this matchup with a heap of momentum:
Buffalo is fresh off its first ranked win since 2008, knocking off No. 23 Northern Illinois, 23-20, in overtime. Coincidentally, UConn was the next opponent on the schedule after the Bulls’ only other ranked win in history, in that aforementioned International Bowl.
UConn throttled Florida Atlantic, 48-14, last Saturday in East Hartford. Wins of that magnitude haven’t been a frequent occurrence for the Huskies and it’s their largest margin of victory against FBS competition since 2013.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
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Buffalo (3-1, 1-0 MAC) collected a program-defining victory last Saturday. Northern Illinois returned home to DeKalb, IL for its first matchup since stunning Notre Dame. While the Bulls stumbled to a 14-3 deficit to the favored Huskies, a 46-yard connection from CJ Ogbonna to Victor Snow in the third quarter changed the entire complexion of the game. The Bulls didn’t allow a single second half touchdown, and the Huskies’ shanked overtime field goal gave Buffalo the opportunity at its second ranked win in program history.
The Bulls are well ahead of schedule on their rebuild. Buffalo is the only MAC team to introduce a new head coach over the offseason, bringing in former Ball State head coach and special teams savant Pete Lembo, who has the team playing high-quality football. Buffalo’s only defeat is at the hands of No. 11 Missouri, but the Bulls have proved their ability to go on the road and compete with the best the MAC has to offer.
The main reason for the team’s success lies on the defensive side of things. Buffalo features several stars that it impressively retained in this day and age, especially amidst a coaching change. The leader of the defense is Shaun Dolac who ranked first in the FBS in solo tackles in 2022, but his 2023 was cut short due to a season-ending injury suffered in September. He’s beyond back on track. Dolac is the FBS leader in total tackles (62), solo tackles (34), and tackles for loss (9.5). The versatile force has two sacks on the year and he’s excelled in coverage with two pass breakups and two interceptions — tied for ninth in the FBS in the latter category. He registered 19 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and an interception in the NIU game, securing MAC Defensive Player of the Week while producing at an All-American pace.
Speaking of All-American, Buffalo’s defense features one of those as well in free safety Marcus Fuqua. Fuqua earned Third Team AP All-American honors in 2022 after ballhawking his way to an FBS-high seven interceptions. While he doesn’t have one yet this season, he’s been an instrumental part of a solid pass defense allowing 190 yards per game. Charles McCatherens has pulled his weight in the secondary as well, posting one interception and three pass breakups for the unit.
Excluding the Missouri game, Buffalo has surrendered just four touchdowns in three outings, demonstrating its defense could be a MAC championship caliber group.
Offensively, the Bulls still have room for improvement as shown by their 127th ranking in total offense at 268 yards per game. They’re not a team that’s going to drop 300 passing yards on an opponent and starting quarterback CJ Ogbonna has yet to eclipse 195. Yet, he’s played smart football in his first year as an FBS starter, featuring a 4-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio. Last year, he made frequent appearances as a wildcat quarterback, but he’s notably cut down on the running this year, leaving that facet of the game to the running backs.
Going forward, Ogbonna must focus on staying upright in the pocket while the offensive line aims for better pass protection. He’s taken nine sacks in three games against FBS competition, and the offense needs to prevent every negative play it can.
The aerial attack took a major hit as wide receiver Nik McMillain (second on the team in receiving yards) has undergone knee surgery and will miss the remainder of the season. Victor Snow still plays an integral role at the position with 13 receptions and 179 yards on the year — having eight catches and 103 yards of separation from the next nearest Bull. They’ll need other faces to step up alongside Snow, and transfers Taji Johnson and JJ Jenkins are among the premier candidates.
But Buffalo prefers to attack on the ground. It boasts three different tailbacks to surpass 100 yards on the year, ranging from Jacqez Barksdale to Al-Jay Henderson to Lamar Sperling in a deep and versatile backfield.
UConn Huskies outlook
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UConn (2-2, Independent) hasn’t come off a week like this in over a decade. By beating the brakes of Florida Atlantic, 48-14, Huskies generated their first win of 34 or more points since dominating Memphis, 45-10, in the 2013 season finale.
The Huskies were eviscerated 50-7 at the hands of Maryland in Week 1, but all three results since have unfolded in promising fashion. UConn dropped 63 points on its FCS competition to prove a greater degree of separation than normal against the lower division. Then the Huskies gave undefeated Duke all it could handle in Durham, leading in the early fourth quarter before the Blue Devils escaped with a 26-21 victory. Then last week, UConn picked up a program record 421 rushing yards to dominate Florida Atlantic, hogging the time of possession wheel by holding onto the ball for 42 of the 60 minutes.
Now, Jim Mora Jr.’s squad understands its potential and it’s a confident bunch heading into a home matchup against Buffalo.
The run game’s prowess is the most impressive revelation of 2024 as UConn ranks 13th in the FBS at 241.5 rushing yards per game. The Huskies outproduced Duke on the ground in Week 3 before their Week 4 rampage, and it’s an area they’ll look to in order to gain an advantage against Buffalo. It’s a three-headed backfield of Durell Robinson, Mel Brown, and Cam Edwards. Robinson and Brown both matched each other with 156 yards against FAU. Edwards previously surpassed the 100-yard mark against the Blue Devils, demonstrating the amount of depth UConn is working with at the running back position.
Quarterback Nick Evers isn’t too shabby of a runner either. The former Oklahoma and Wisconsin quarterback has 151 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the year as another proponent of the Huskies’ high-powered ground attack. As a passer, Evers is 30-of-60 on the year with 296 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in three games. But if the Huskies want to concentrate on strictly the passing game, they could bring in quarterback Joe Fagnano for a spark. Fagnano threw a 33-yard touchdown pass last week, and in Week 2 against Merrimack, he was on fire with 328 passing yards and five touchdowns on a 13-of-19 showing, although the opponent was FCS competition.
Just like Buffalo, one receiver has been the overwhelming No. 1 target of the passing offense. That receiver is Skyler Bell — an explosive deep threat with 347 yards on an average of 23.1 yards per catch this year. The Wisconsin transfer — previously acquainted with Evers — posted 100+ yards in each of the first two games of the season. No other UConn receiver possesses more than 86 yards on the year, meaning Buffalo’s defense should gameplan around Bell this Saturday.
UConn’s best defense last week was its rushing offense which allowed it to hold the ball for roughly 70 percent of the contest. The Huskies did shine as an aerial defense against Florida Atlantic though, holding the Owls to 9-of-16 passing for 87 yards and an interception. That was the unit’s strongest showing of the year in that regard, and it hopes to make it more sustainable going forward. In order for more performances like that, UConn desperately needs two things.
One is a pass rush, as the Huskies total just two sacks in three games against FBS opponents this year. Another, which is related to a pass rush, it the ability to generate turnovers. UConn corralled only two interceptions and recovered zero fumbles in its first four weeks, and the -4 statistic in the turnover margin department could be costly in close games.
Prediction
Last Saturday in the MAC taught us that anybody coming off a signature win is invincible. A ranked Northern Illinois team lost at home to Buffalo, right after shutting Notre Dame down for four quarters in an iconic 16-14 victory. Toledo dropped the nightcap to WKU, just one week after invading SEC country and obliterating Mississippi State, 41-17.
Buffalo is the MAC team coming off a signature win this week, and the Bulls remain on the road after their second ranked victory ever. This matchup isn’t your typical UConn. It’s one that took Duke to the wire and thrashed Florida Atlantic by 34 points, boasting a productive offense through a loaded run game.
While the Bulls’ Shaun Dolac-led defense has been solid, the Huskies could prove lethal in the run game. Buffalo’s 127th yards per game offense hasn’t shown the ability to consistently finish drives, so if the Bulls aren’t generating turnovers or special teams home run plays, they could be the next MAC team primed to fall after a signature win.
Prediction: UConn 26, Buffalo 23