The 2023 MAC Championship Game rematch is on at the Glass Bowl.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Glass Bowl — Toledo, OH
- Spread: Toledo (-6.5)
- Over/under: 43.5
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 29-23-1
- Last meeting: Miami (OH) 23, Toledo 14 — December 2, 2023 (MAC Championship Game)
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
It’s a rematch of the 2023 MAC Championship Game.
Miami (OH) and Toledo were the MAC’s top teams throughout the entire 2023 campaign, both rattling off 11 victories to become the winningest teams in the conference since 2016 Western Michigan.
Until last season, Miami and Toledo had a weird scheduling quirk where the programs hadn’t settled things on the field since 2011. Now, the RedHawks and Rockets are more than acquainted with each other. Toledo took the regular season meeting in Oxford last October, but Miami won the war — celebrating as MAC champions after upsetting the Rockets 23-14 in Detroit in December.
Saturday marks the MAC opener for both teams, looking for a return trip in December to the grand stage of Ford Field.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Miami (OH) (1-3, 0-0 MAC) did not have the non-conference experience it hoped for coming off an 11-3 campaign. The RedHawks didn’t run through the easiest schedule, facing Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame in consecutive contests while serving as the underdog each time. But as considerable favorites at home last weekend, Miami nearly dropped a contest to UMass.
Chuck Martin’s team needed a 47-yard Dom Dzioban field goal at the buzzer to force overtime against the future MAC program. Then in overtime, an ineligible man downfield wiped away a UMass touchdown and the Minutemen settled for a missed field goal. That opened the door for a walk-off 43-yarder by Dzioban, handing the RedHawks win No. 1 of 2024.
They aim to sustain the momentum on the road at Toledo, but there are plenty of items that need to be addressed before the MAC Championship Game rematch. One is the offense. Miami wasn’t exactly a world beater on this side of the ball even in the MAC champion season, but the offense has taken a concerning turn in 2024. The RedHawks are second-last in the FBS in scoring at 12 points per game and 118th in total offense.
The offensive struggles are primarily driven by the inability to gain anything in the run game, which is a bit of a surprise considering the amount of experienced rushers in the backfield and the success Miami’s veteran offensive line had in 2023. The good news is the unit is making incremental strides in this area week by week, peaking with a season-high 168 yards versus UMass when it combined for 174 yards in its first three matchups.
Keyon Mozee — the team’s leading running back in 2021 and 2022 — emerged as the premier option against the Minutemen as the first Miami man to hit the century mark in 2024 with 114 yards on nine rushes. Purdue transfer Dylan Downing is currently emerging as the second option in the backfield, and he ranks second in the running back room with 4.3 yards per carry this year.
Miami will primarily move the ball through means of sixth-year starter Brett Gabbert. Last October, Gabbert suffered a gruesome season-ending leg injury in the Toledo game, but the quarterback triumphantly returned in Week 1. It’s been an up-and-down season for Gabbert, but his potential remains sky-high as shown in Week 3 against Cincinnati when he fired for 339 yards and two touchdowns — completing five passes of at least 35 yards.
Although Miami’s offensive stats don’t suggest explosiveness, there is nothing measly or conservative about this passing game. Gabbert attacks downfield quite often and he’s established incredible rapport with wide receiver Cade McDonald who has 24 catches for 328 yards on the year. McDonald opened his second season as a RedHawk with a pair of 100-yard games. Outside of McDonald, the premier targets include 6’4” wideout Reggie Virgil, Javon Tracy, and running back Kevin Davis.
Defensively, the RedHawks haven’t been subject to a poor outing yet despite a difficult schedule. No Miami opponent posted more than 28 points in the non-conference slate and the RedHawks haven’t allowed 30 in their last 17 matchups. The run defense still needs improvement as the group surrenders 202 yards per game (117th in FBS) at a 5.7 average, but where it lacks in containing the ground, it makes up for with superior pass defense.
Miami was exceptional at the line of scrimmage in 2023, starring against the run and in the pass rush, and the RedHawks look to revert to that level of success. So far this season, they registered just four sacks, so they’ll look to defensive end Brian Ugwu and middle linebacker Ty Wise (16 combined sacks in 2023) to ramp up the production in the opposing backfield.
Other names to watch on the unit include tackling machine Matt Salopek who won the MAC Defensive Player of the Year award a season ago. Salopek is unsurprisingly sustaining his success from the past three seasons with a team-high 36 tackles as the team’s premier run-stopper. In the secondary, cornerback Raion Strader will have his hands full pitted against a talented Toledo receiving corps. Strader has already broken up three passes in four games, but he awaits one accomplishment Miami hasn’t achieved this season — the RedHawks are one of three FBS teams without an interception.
Toledo Rockets outlook
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Toledo (3-1, 0-0 MAC) is fresh off a bye week, getting seven extra days to marinate in a hard-fought Week 4 loss at Western Kentucky. That defeat came off the heels of a signature win in SEC country where Toledo ravaged Mississippi State, 41-17 — leading by as many as 32 points in the late third quarter.
Now the Rockets enter MAC play, hoping to extend their streak of winning eight consecutive regular season games against league competition. It’s also a revenge game for head coach Jason Candle and his squad, hoping to avenge Miami after the RedHawks prevented Toledo from becoming the first back-to-back MAC champion since 2011 and 2012 Northern Illinois.
This year’s Toledo squad is off to a sound start on both sides of the ball, checking in at 23rd in scoring offense and 41st in scoring defense. The offense was nearly wiped clean of all starters outside of the receiving corps as the Rockets lost an All-MAC quarterback, All-MAC running back, and all five offensive linemen.
Tucker Gleason has done a stellar job taking over the reins at quarterback. He exhibits an 11 touchdown to two interception ratio and his efficient 23-of-28, 285-yard performance was essential in the Rockets’ pulverization of Mississippi State. Gleason isn’t one-dimensional though and he offers strong support to the run game, ranking second on the team with 136 rushing yards.
Gleason is almost the fourth running back in an offense which features a steady rotation of three others. Willie Shaw III, Connor Walendzak, and Jacquez Start all have between 30 and 38 rushing attempts this year, ranging from 95 to 148 yards. While the run game has been effective, it lacks explosiveness. None of the three running backs in the rotation have totaled more than 13 yards on a single carry this year, and they’ll look for significant pickups toward the boundary against Miami’s run defense.
Toledo’s strongest position group on offense is its receiving corps led by veterans Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III. Newton enters Saturday with 16 receptions for 231 yards and four touchdowns, while Vandeross almost replicates those stats with 20 catches, 267 yards, and three touchdowns. Those are the overwhelming No. 1 and No. 2 targets of Gleason, but Miami should be cognizant of veteran tight end Anthony Torres near the red zone. Toledo loves RPOs involving the tight end near the goal line and Torres already has four touchdown catches in 2024 as a result.
While the offense is rolling with three 38+ yard showings in 2024, the defense also remains potent. Toledo is wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage, tied 17th nationally in sacks with 3.0 per game while picking up an average of 7.5 tackles for loss. The bulk of the work in the backfield is performed by the starting linebacker trio of Jackson Barrow on the inside and Daniel Bolden and Jeremiah Peters on the outside. These three combine for 3.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss, forming one of the top linebacking corps in the MAC.
As suggested by the slew of backfield stops, Toledo presents one of the more fortified run defenses in the country, holding teams to 95 yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. The same can’t be said for the passing defense which is why WKU’s aerial-oriented attack proved such a problem for the Rockets. Still, the pass defense tends to step up in critical situations. Toledo has been stellar on third downs with an opponent conversion percentage of 30.4. These situations are where the safety tandem of Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and Maxen Hook typically thrive.
McNeil-Warren and Hook are the top two tacklers on the team and they combine for two interceptions and two forced fumbles this year as the main contributors to the turnover effort. As a result, turnover margin has been mostly a kind statistic to the Rockets as they feature one of the better differentials in the FBS at +4.
Looking beyond offense and defense, Toledo can also gain a significant edge in special teams. Jacquez Stuart and Bryson Hammer team up for one of the best returning duos in the country, often providing favorable field position. Stuart already housed a 98-yard kick return touchdown this year while Hammer is sixth in the nation in total punt return yards, generating 17.5 per try.
Prediction
Just like the 2023 regular season meeting and the 2023 MAC Championship Game, this one will reside on the lower scoring side. In most likelihood, no teams breaks 30 points — as no Miami (OH) opponent has since the 2023 opener — and one team likely finishes below 20.
Right now, the RedHawks’ run game isn’t in the same groove it was heading into the 2023 MAC Championship and neither is their run defense. Getting the run game in rhythm won’t be easy against a stellar Toledo front limiting opponents below 3.0 yards per carry. The Rockets’ offense has been unquestionably the stronger of the two offenses this year. Miami benefits from a super low-scoring outing, but if Tucker Gleason can continue to prevent turnovers and lead a few sustained drives, this game should swing in Toledo’s favor.
Prediction: Toledo 28, Miami (OH) 13