Two struggling defenses look for sudden improvement with a much-needed win on the line.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 12 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Dix Stadium — Kent, OH
- Spread: Ball State (-6.5)
- Over/under: 57.5
- All-time series: Ball State leads, 23-8
- Last meeting: Ball State 34, Kent State 3 — November 18, 2023
- Current streak: Ball State, 2 (2022-23)
Setting the scene
Two birds of the Mid-American Conference flock together at Dix Stadium, looking to notch conference win No. 1 of the season.
It hasn’t been the best start to 2024 for Ball State (1-4, 0-2 MAC) or Kent State (0-5, 0-1 MAC) as the Cardinals and Golden Flashes feature the two worst defenses in college football. However, that could mean we’re in for a thrilling high-scoring fireworks show Saturday afternoon in Ohio, and the winner will gain much-needed momentum with their first FBS victory of the year.
Ball State Cardinals outlook
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Ball State may be riding a four-game losing streak, but the Cardinals are showing signs of promise when pitted against their MAC brethren. They fell 62-0 to Miami (FL) and 63-7 in James Madison in concerning blowouts, but they came within one score of Central Michigan (37-34 defeat) and Western Michigan (45-42) in high-scoring shootouts.
But the one common denominator is the Cardinals must address their defensive woes. Ball State ranks second-to-last in the FBS in both scoring defense (48.2 points allowed per game) and total defense (513 yards allowed per game) with only Kent State trailing in both categories. The Cardinals haven’t exactly established a strength on defense, as they’ve been picked apart on the ground and through the air. Their 120th ranked run defense was shredded by Central Michigan to the tune of 335 yards on a 10.2 average and their 131st ranked passes defense allowed 264 yards on a 26-of-29 showing to Western Michigan.
One solution could be to ramp up the aggressiveness at the line of scrimmage to force long down-and-distance situations and turnovers. Ball State is only generating 1.4 sacks per game and only has four takeaways on the season — ranking below 100th nationally in both categories. Another could be committing to the exact opposite strategy and playing more of a shell style defense to limit the over-the-top explosive plays, making offenses work for every yard in more steady fashion. Western Michigan scored two touchdowns of 40+ yards on Ball State last week while Central Michigan completed two runs of 70+ yards, so limiting these home run chunks plays is of utmost importance.
The main name to watch on the defensive side of the ball for Ball State is outside linebacker Keionte Newson. He currently leads the unit with 30 tackles in addition to having three tackles for loss and a pair of pass breakups.
Offenisvely, the Cardinals are demonstrating a lot more firepower, inflicting enough damage to win their first two MAC games had the defense forced one or two more stops. The Cardinals produced 431 yards against Central Michigan and 397 against Western Michigan, particularly excelling through the aerial attack.
Quarterback Kadin Semonza is fourth in the MAC with 1,133 passing yards and second with 11 passing touchdowns, lighting up the Broncos’ defense for a career-high 307 yards last Saturday. The redshirt freshman has expanded his verticality this year and it’s worked wonders for Ball State’s offense. Semonza has a valuable connection with tight end Tanner Koziol who ranks 12th in the FBS with 38 receptions and 49th with 391 yards — second among all tight ends in both categories. Running back Braedon Sloan is second on the team in receiving yards with 201 as another frequented threat in an efficient offense which completes 66 percent of passes.
However, the offense still seeks improvement in some areas. The run game is 119th in the FBS and averages under 3.0 yards per carry. Sloan has been a fine No. 1 option with 347 yards on a 4.5 average, but Ball State needs to find other backs to support him and keep the offense balanced. Additionally, sacks factor into that rushing average and Ball State hasn’t done the best job at pass protection. The Cardinals yield 3.2 sacks per game which ranks bottom 10 in the country.
Kent State Golden Flashes outlook
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Kent State just needs to see one go in. The Golden Flashes are one of three remaining winless FBS teams, sharing the label with UTEP and FBS newcomer Kennesaw State.
Coming off a 1-11 season with the FBS’s worst record in 2023, Kent State’s bounce-back effort hasn’t exactly gone as planned. The Golden Flashes showed promise Week 1 at Pittsburgh, but everything snowballed into disaster from there. They dropped a Week 2 buy game to FCS St. Francis (PA) and then lost to Tennessee and Penn State by a combined score of 127-0 — allowing the Volunteers and Nittany Lions to set program records in yardage during those contests. Kent State responded to consecutive shutouts by posting 33 points on Eastern Michigan, but the defensive lapses sustained in a 52-33 loss to Eastern Michigan for the MAC opener.
But the Golden Flashes’ problems go beyond their record, their scoring struggles, and a defense which ranks last in the country in both points allowed per game (51.4) and yards allowed per game (583). Kent State is about as injured as anybody in the country right now with 19 total injuries listed on its last MAC Availability Report. The team lost two quarterbacks — starter Devin Kargman and backup JD Sherrod — to season-ending injuries at Penn State. The running back room has been depleted since fall camp. With faces like Gavin Garcia and Curtis Douglas going down with injuries, Kent State is relying on a new cast of running backs led by Ky Thomas and true freshman Ayden Harris — who both put together decent showings last outing vs. Eastern Michigan.
Offensively, the Eastern Michigan game was very encouraging. After enduring consecutive 0-point showings at Tennessee and Penn State, the Golden Flashes exploded for 33 points with a depleted offense. Quarterback Tommy Ulatowski manufactured 345 passing yards which was the most by a Kent State player since Oct. 1, 2022. He delivered three touchdown dimes and a rushing score to produce Kent State’s first 30-point output against FBS competition in the Kenni Burns era.
What makes Kent State’s offense dangerous is the playmaking ability of the wide receiver duo of Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea. Both receivers earned All-MAC status in 2023 and are on track to replicate that honor for 2023. Floriea shined in Week 1 with a 100-yard performance at Pitt, while McCray stepped up last outing with a 188-yard masterclass vs. Eastern Michigan — recording two 65+ yard touchdown passes in the game.
Kent State’s offense has the ability to impact the scoreboard, but the Golden Flashes are the only FBS team not to lead for a single second this year, and that’s due to execution on the other side of the ball. Kent State is fifth-to-last in run defense and last in pass defense in the FBS, surrendering 294 and 289 yards, respectively.
Still, there have been promising individual performances throughout the unit this year. While injured linebacker Nick Giacolone prepares for his first action in 2024, Rocco Nicholl has stepped up tremendously, leading the team in tackles with 45 as the only defender to break up multiple passes. Buffalo transfer defensive end Kameron Olds is another standout, producing a team-high three sacks and an interception.
Another name to watch on Kent State is kicker Will Hryszko. All-MAC kicker Andrew Glass entered the transfer portal to retain a redshirt, so the Golden Flashes turn to a new specialist when it comes to scoring three points.
Prediction
It’s the two worst scoring defenses in college football. And both offenses have shown the ability to function at a respectable level recently. Ball State is averaging 38 points per game through two MAC games while Kent State posted 33 in its MAC opener. That being said, there are going to be plenty of touchdowns in this matchup Saturday.
The passing offenses should trade blows as Ball State attacks with Tanner Koziol while Kent State responds with Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea. Expect a slew of 30+ yard plays in a back-and-forth affair. But unlike their previous close games this year, Ball State emerges this time thanks to another 300-yard showing by Kadin Semonza and one extra stop by the defense.
Prediction: Ball State 43, Kent State 34