The Rockets and Bulls aim to remain unbeaten in MAC play, but only one will at UB Stadium on Saturday.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 12 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: UB Stadium — Amherst, NY
- Spread: Toledo (-9)
- Over/under: 45.5
- All-time series: Toledo leads, 8-6
- Last meeting: Toledo 31, Buffalo 13 — October 31, 2023
- Current streak: Toledo, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
Toledo and Buffalo enter Week 7 with two of the MAC’s better starts to 2024.
Both teams are 1-0 in conference play after impressive wins as Toledo knocked off the reigning MAC champion Miami (OH) while Buffalo upset a then-ranked Northern Illinois in Week 4. Overall, the Rockets are 4-1 and the Bulls are 3-2, so both teams envision bowl games in their future.
Saturday presents an opportunity at separation for each participant, and the contest earns a nationally televised noon ET slot on ESPNU.
Toledo Rockets outlook
Matt Bush-Imagn Images
Toledo (4-1, 1-0 MAC) is doing what it’s done for 15 years — win. It’s been since 2009 since the Rockets last finished below .500 and this year’s squad looks like the team to beat in the MAC, especially after a dominant 41-17 victory at Mississippi State and a 30-20 handling of 2023 MAC champion Miami (OH).
Jason Candle led the Rockets to back-to-back MAC Championship Game appearances and lost a slew of talent from his 11-win team last year, yet they reloaded and developed very well this offseason. Now, Toledo features a very balanced team with competency on both sides of the ball.
The Rockets are tied for 26th in scoring offense at 35.8 points per game. Toledo primarily makes its mark on this end by means of a potent, yet efficient passing attack. Quarterback Tucker Gleason is taking on full-time starter’s duties for the first time in his college career, but the junior looks like a savvy veteran. He completes 63.0 percent of throws with a respectable ratio of 13 touchdowns to four interceptions. Last week he took another step in the right direction, resetting his season-high with 318 passing yards on a 27-of-38 showing to beat the RedHawks.
Gleason is armed with some of the best wide receiver talent in the MAC. Jerjuan Newton is a two-time all-conference selection, and he’s still taking strides. Against Miami, he shattered his career-best with 127 receiving yards on eight receptions. Newton can beat defenders in a multitude of ways with a diverse route tree and he’s first on the team with 358 receiving yards. Second on the team is Junior Vandeross III who leads Toledo in the receptions department with 26. Vandeross is a lethal 5’8” threat from the slot whose not easy to bring down with his agility. Rounding out the receiving corps is tight end Anthony Torres who is averaging a touchdown per game through five appearances. The 6’6”, 250 seventh-year senior adds height and size to the group, serving as a premier red zone option for Gleason.
The run game hasn’t materialized nearly to the level it was last year. No individual rusher has attained more than 62 yards in a game this year. With Willie Shaw II missing the Miami game due to injury, Toledo has turned to Connor Walendzak as the lead back. While he’s running behind a rather-inexperienced offensive line replacing five starters from last year, it’s a line that’s been thriving in pass protection — only allowing five sacks through five games.
Speaking of sacks, that’s one specialty of the Toledo defense which checks in the FBS top 25 with 2.8 per game. The Rockets are generating copious amounts of pressure through their linebacking corps and defensive tackle Darius Alexander, forming together to create one of the most daunting fronts in the MAC. Teams struggle running the ball on the Rockets, picking up just 2.8 yards per carry and 87 yards per carry — qualifying for a top 10 run defense in the FBS. Four different Rockets feature at least three tackles for loss on the season: Alexander, in addition to linebackers Daniel Bolden, Jackson Barrow, and Jeremiah Peters.
The pass defense hasn’t been as fruitful as teams gain 255 yards through the air against Toledo on average. A pass-happy WKU team presented the Rockets their lone loss of 2024, and the departure of first-round NFL Draft pick Quinyon Mitchell is definitely revealing. The revamped cornerback room is still a work in progress, but safeties Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and Maxen Hook shine as the leading tacklers on the roster with 43 and 35, respectively.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
David Butler II-Imagn Images
Buffalo (3-2, 1-0 MAC) is fresh off its first bye week of 2024. The Bulls may be coming off a 47-3 loss at the hands of UConn, but still, this team is a vast improvement over the 2023 squad. First-year head coach Pete Lembo already advanced the program in his first year at the helm, earning Buffalo its second-ever ranked win in history by edging No. 23 Northern Illinois in overtime in Week 2.
That win was especially impressive considering the Bulls trailed by double-digits on the road in the second half before the defense emerged to pull off the finishing efforts. And that’s what the identity of this Buffalo team is — defense. The Bulls suffocated UMass to three points to earn one of their victories and held Northern Illinois out of the end zone in the second half to earn another.
The heart and soul of Buffalo’s defense is inside linebacker Shaun Dolac, who might have a case for an All-American bid. Despite already taking a bye week, Dolac is first in the FBS in total tackles at 72. He’s third in tackles for loss with 10.5. He has three sacks, two interceptions, and two pass breakups. This is nothing new for the linebacker. He missed the majority of the 2023 season due to a September season-ending injury, but in 2022, he ranked first in the country in solo tackles.
However, Dolac isn’t the only force on Buffalo’s defense. Outside linebacker Red Murdock is enjoying a spectacular breakout season which features 55 tackles, 10 tackles for loss (fourth in FBS), two sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles. Thus, opponents facing Buffalo aren’t encountering just one clear-cut All-MAC talent at linebacker, but two. With the linebackers leading the charge, the Bulls rank sixth in the FBS in tackles for loss per game. Add defensive end Kobe Stewart (2.5 sacks) to the mix and Buffalo is a team that can apply significant pressure on backfields.
The secondary hasn’t been as strong as the front, but Buffalo possesses All-American talent in the group. Strong safety Marcus Fuqua earned AP Third Team All-American honors in 2022 for leading the country in interceptions, and forcing takeaways is definitely a demand for the Buffalo defense Saturday as Toledo is a +3 in turnover margin.
Offensively, Buffalo hasn’t been too carless with the ball — only committing five turnovers through five games in 2024. Quarterback CJ Ogbonna has tossed just one interception through 108 attempts. Still, Buffalo seeks better efficiency and explosiveness in the aerial game as it has yet to total 200 passing yards in a game this year. Also, the team completion percentage of 50.4 percent certainly needs to improve going forward in MAC play.
Buffalo’s passing attack already took a significant hit as wide receiver Nik McMillan was ruled out for the year. Without McMillan, the Bulls are relying mainly on Victor Snow and JJ Jenkins to propel the offense down the field. Snow is the team leader with 14 catches and 189 yards while Jenkins checks in at second with nine and 103, respectively.
Still, the M.O. of the offense involves relying on the run. Buffalo features the running back tandem of Jacqez Barksdale and Al-Jay Henderson who combine for 338 yards on the season. But the team needs to produce more significant chunks on the ground as it only has one carry exceeding 22 yards this year. Overall, the Bulls are 129th in the FBS in offensive production and play a brand of complementary football, relying on defense and field position. Thus, they cannot afford another rough defensive showing like they had at UConn or the potential for a blowout is high. Buffalo has three wins, but its losses are by a combined score of 85-3.
Prediction
Both Buffalo and Toledo present stellar fronts with good defensive line and linebacker play. Neither team moves the ball through the ground exceptionally well, so both defensive fronts should win their fair share of battles. But the one drastic difference in this matchup is Toledo’s passing attack vs. Buffalo passing attack.
Tucker Gleason is a proven 300-yard quarterback and he walks into this matchup with a loaded and versatile receiving corps. Meanwhile Buffalo is bottom six nationally in yards per game and has yet to register 200 in the passing department. The passing numbers will prove to be the difference, especially in the third down conversion category. Toledo is a top 40 third down offense with a 45 percent conversion rate, while Buffalo is third-to-last at 22 percent. The ability to stay on the field gives the Rockets a comfortable road win.
Prediction: Toledo 33, Buffalo 13