The College Football Playoff travels to Austin, where things get weird.
When the college football playoff was envisioned, I have to believe these were the type of games that the powers that be wanted to see on the schedule. You have a first round home game at DKR Texas Memorial Stadium where the Texas Longhorns, the bluest of the blue blood programs, plays host to the Clemson Tigers, who dominated football for a stretch but has fallen off a beat in this NIL and transfer portal SEC/Big Ten landscape that we have found ourselves in recently.
And both teams are kind of on opposite paths right now with just enough questions to make it relatively uncertain what goes down Saturday in Austin. Clemson took the ACC Championship in a semi-upset over undefeated SMU and makes their 9th college football playoff appearance, second only to Alabama. Texas looked like the premier college football program this season and were the pick to win the SEC and receive the associated first round bye. Right up until the SEC Championship where they ran into Georgia in an overtime thriller.
It’s really the age old narrative of how does a team bounce back from either a high energy unexpected win or a draining surprising loss. Throw in the pressure of the playoff and it’s really anyone’s guess. For me, I’m counting on Texas to do Texas things and win the game. But I do think give Dabo and his team a chip on their shoulder, a narrative of no real chance, and positive momentum to build on and Clemson is a lot more dangerous than people think.
The line seems to play to the narrative that Texas should win easily in a high scoring affair, but remember the goal… to get even money on both sides of the line. If the Texas faithful and casual fans consider Texas a dominating death machine, that line may be a bit inflated. And we’re going to pounce.
Do I think Clemson pulls the upset? Unlikely. Do I think they keep it closer than the number? I do. So we’re going to play the Tigers and take the alternate spread up a point from 13.5 to 14.5. At open this was also the highest point total of the weekend, but with Texas’ defense give me the under. In similar fashion to our first two games, ball control becomes important, and that benfits the Texas ground attack early and late.
Texas-Clemson Best Bets:
- Clemson +14.5
- Under 53.5
- Quintrevion Wisner (TEX) over 75 rushing yards
Take a Chance Playoff Parlay:
Clemson moneyline, Phil Mafah over 50.5 yards rushing, Cade Klubnik over 205 passing yards