Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $74,723,570 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Peyton Krebs (one year, $863K)
G Devon Levi (two years, $925K)
F John-Jason Peterka (two years, $856K)
D Owen Power (one year, $916K)
F Jack Quinn (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Krebs: $412.5K
Levi: $925K
Peterka: $32.5K
Power: $1.85MM
Quinn: $850K
Total: $4.07MM

Krebs locked down a regular spot in Buffalo’s lineup last season but saw his per-game production drop along the way, failing to crack the double-digit goal mark in the process.  He’s still an important part of their future but unless he can jump into an impact role this year, a bridge deal around the $2MM mark looks like his likely outcome while he’s unlikely to hit his ‘A’ bonuses.  Quinn, on the other hand, already saw some top-six time last season and should get back to that role once he recovers from surgery.  If he gets into the 25-30-goal range, he’s a candidate to go for a long-term contract right away.  The injury will make it difficult for him to max on his four ‘A’ bonuses.

Peterka’s first full NHL campaign was a strong one given what was a bit of a limited role.  He doesn’t necessarily profile as the type of player who the Sabres would want to bypass a bridge deal with but again, if he can lock down a full-time top-six spot over the next two years, it’s possible he plays himself into that core role.  Peterka’s bonuses are of the games-played variety and as long as he stays healthy, he’ll hit them.

Power made his presence felt in his first full NHL season in 2022-23.  He logged nearly 24 minutes a night, seeing tough minutes in all situations.  He only scored four goals but added 31 assists, demonstrating that there is plenty of upside at that end of the rink.  The 2021 first-overall selection is extension-eligible now and GM Kevyn Adams has indicated a desire to get an early extension done.  Those contracts are rarely bridge agreements so a long-term pact will be coming his way.  The eight-year, $64.4MM extension given to Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson stands as the likely starting point for those discussions.  Notably, Power will have five years of club control next summer so a max-term deal will only give Buffalo three more years to work with.  He has four ‘A’ bonuses and $1MM in ‘B’ bonuses; the A’s are likely to be hit while the B ones are quite difficult to hit.

Levi had quite a run down the stretch after his college season ended as he quickly took over the number one role, helping the Sabres to stay in the playoff race.  Buffalo opted to not get another veteran to help ease him in so it’s fair to say he’s likely to get a big workload this year, giving him a chance to hit at least some of his four ‘A’ bonuses.  Assuming he can hold it down, he could be eyeing a bridge deal around the $4.5MM mark, similar to the ones that Jake Oettinger and Spencer Knight signed.  A long-term agreement would probably push past the $6MM mark.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Jacob Bryson ($1.85MM, RFA)
G Eric Comrie ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Dahlin ($6MM, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Erik Johnson ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Henri Jokiharju ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Tyson Jost ($2MM, UFA)
G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($837.5K, RFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($4.75MM, UFA)
D Riley Stillman ($1.35MM, RFA)

Potential Bonuses
Okposo: $500K

It feels like Olofsson has been a speculative trade candidate for a few years now but yet, here he is still with Buffalo…for now at least.  He impressed with 28 goals last season but still found himself on the fourth line and even out of the lineup at times.  Buffalo has opted to keep giving him raises but if his ice time is limited again this season, the chances of another team seeing fit to do so next summer appear to be low.  Okposo opted not to test free agency this summer, instead accepting this deal, a considerable cut from his $6MM AAV last season.  He would have been hard-pressed to beat this the way the open market went and since he’ll be 36 in April, he’s likely going year-to-year from here on out.  His bonus is payable with a Stanley Cup victory.

Girgensons also elected not to test free agency, inking this deal to stay with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2012.  The market for bottom-six forwards wasn’t great so this looks like a wise move in hindsight.  If he’s back on the fourth line routinely next season, free agency might not be as kind to him a year from now.  Mittelstadt had a breakout campaign in 2022-23, setting new career bests across the board despite seeing a small dip in playing time.  Given how his first few years went, this is a case where both sides will want to wait and see what comes next.  A repeat showing could push his AAV toward the $6MM mark while if he takes a step back, it could land closer to $4MM.  Jost chose to take less than his qualifying offer to stick around in Buffalo.  He held his own after being claimed off waivers from Minnesota but will need to push for a regular top-nine spot if he wants to get another look as eventually, the Sabres will need to cut costs in their bottom six.

Dahlin’s situation has generated a lot of attention in recent weeks.  Some had suggested it was likely that an early extension was coming early in the summer.  Clearly, that hasn’t happened.  Then the target appeared to be the start of training camp but that hasn’t happened yet either.  A max-term agreement should push his AAV into the $10.5MM territory, give or take a couple hundred thousand either way.  At this point, it’s possible that the term of the deal is the hold up more than the cap hit.  If Dahlin opted for a medium-term pact, Buffalo would still gain several years of team control but he’d also be positioned to test the market while still being in his prime where a max-term pact could be more lucrative.  The AAV on a shorter-term pact should check in at or just below $10MM.

Johnson’s signing was a puzzling one on paper after his role and playing time dipped sharply in Colorado the last couple of years.  However, he adds some experience and leadership to a back end that didn’t have a ton of it before and it seems like Adams was willing to overpay for it.  If he stays around the 17-minute mark, his market value might be closer to half things next summer.  Jokiharju has struggled to stay healthy in the first two years of his bridge deal but has also logged more than 21 minutes a night in the 60 games per season he has played.  If that continues this year, he’ll be positioned to at least get past the $3MM mark with arbitration rights even without much in the way of offensive production.

Both Bryson and Stillman find themselves in a similar situation, trying to secure a full-time spot in the lineup.  Bryson looked like a future regular just a year ago but saw his playing time drop to under 15 minutes a game last season.  Stillman, meanwhile, is with his third team in less than a year and has yet to solidify himself as a regular yet.  Bryson needs to be qualified at $1.9MM and Stillman at $1.35MM.  If they can’t lock down a bigger role in the lineup, both could be non-tender candidates.

Luukkonen had a rough year with Buffalo last season, posting a 3.61 GAA and a .891 SV% but it was his first taste of extended NHL action.  He’s not ready to be a starter yet but he still is likely part of their future plans.  At the moment, his next deal might be in the $1.5MM territory but a good year could send that upward quickly.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Jordan Greenway ($3MM, UFA)
F Lukas Rousek ($775K, RFA)

Greenway came over in a midseason trade with Minnesota and didn’t exactly light it up.  Overall, he had just 11 points in 67 last season, numbers that are more in line with a fourth liner.  Power forwards get plenty of runway to develop though and he’ll have a chance to rebuild some value over the next couple of years.  Rousek is a contender to land a spot in training camp after a strong showing last season with Rochester.  If he’s able to do so, a seven-figure deal should be achievable in 2025.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Connor Clifton ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Alex Tuch ($4.75MM, UFA)

Tuch had shown flashes of top-six upside with Vegas and in his first stint with the Sabres but couldn’t sustain it consistently.  That changed last season as he became a bona fide top liner, shattering his previous benchmarks while passing the point-per-game mark for the first time.  Given the premium placed on big forwards, this contract is currently well below market value.

Clifton’s first taste of free agency was a good one, landing a deal whose AAV is almost as high as his career earnings to date.  He adds some sandpaper to Buffalo’s back end and should fill the spot of Ilya Lyubushkin who was traded to Anaheim earlier this summer.  This deal seemed a bit on the high side when it was signed although his market was relatively strong by all accounts.

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